Aston Villa vs. Everton Betting Odds, Pick & Preview: The Prop to Play in Primetime EPL Match
Peter Powell – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Everton standout Richarlison.
Aston Villa vs. Everton Odds
|Aston Villa Odds||+140|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-105 / -120)|
|Day | Time||12:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||NBC | Peacock Premium | fuboTV|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.|
Everton looks to continue its blistering start under manager Rafa Benitez when it visits an Aston Villa side unbeaten at home entering Saturday’s Premier League matchup.
The Toffees are one of four teams atop the table with 10 points following their rousing 3-1 home victory over Burnley last weekend. However, they sit in fourth place due to being behind the three other clubs via the tiebreakers.
Aston Villa suffered a 3-0 loss to Chelsea last Saturday at Stamford Bridge. Yet, the final score flattered the hosts, with manager Dean Smith’s Villa squad unlucky to not find at least one goal based on their chances.
This is the 207th league meeting between these founding members of the football league, representing the most-played fixture in English league history.
Reinforcements En Route for Aston Villa
Saturday could mark the first time Smith has the entirety of his revamped squad available following the $130-million sale of Jack Grealish to Manchester City last month.
There’s still a hurdle to clear, with late fitness tests for Argentine winger Emi Buendia and goalkeeper Emi Martinez. The duo was forced to train alone in Croatia for 10 days following their trip to Argentina for World Cup Qualifying.
To this point, Villa has scored five Premier League goals and conceded seven while earning five points — four of those at home.
The expected goals (xG) tally — 4.3 for and 4.2 against — suggests the games have been cagier than some of the results.
That was especially true of last week when Villa led Chelsea 1.5 to 1.1 in xG at Stamford Bridge.
But the visitors were done in by two excellent goals from Romelu Lukaku, sandwiched by Mateo Kovacic’s contribution following an awful Villa giveaway.
Everton Bringing Showtime to Premier League
No team has undergone a stronger tactical reversal from last season than the Toffees in their transition to Martinez from the previous manager Carlo Ancelotti.
The change from slow-build, possession-based soccer to an approach rooted in pressure and transition bears itself out in the early xG totals. Everton’s 7.4 xG are third in the Premier League behind only Manchester City and Liverpool, and their xG difference of +3.0 is fourth.
However, the Toffees have also pushed their luck at times. Everton has conceded the first goal in three matches despite earning seven points from those games.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin will miss a second consecutive start with toe and thigh injuries that are expected to keep last year’s club scoring leader out into next month.
And while it didn’t make an impact last week, Everton can’t count on Andros Townsend scoring from 35-yards out every weekend.
Betting Analysis & Pick
With transition teams like Everton, you sometimes find out that their games become more wide-open away from home.
That’s because some of their tactics to create opportunities are reliant on an opponent being willing to take an initiative to possess and build attacks. And teams are more likely to take that initiative playing at home in front of their support.
Everton also isn’t quite as reliant on Calvert-Lewin as his scoring rate suggests, with Richarlison more critical to the team’s attacking movements.
And Villa’s potential front three of Danny Ings, Leon Bailey and Bertrand Traore have verticality that could expose Everton’s pressing approach.
Calvert-Lewin’s absence will keep me away from playing the over. But I’m opting for yes on both teams to score instead at -125 odds and an implied 55.6% probability.
Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-125)