Atletico Madrid hosts Club Brugge in a crucial Champions League second-leg playoff on Tuesday, with kickoff at 12:45 PM EST from the Riyadh Air Metropolitano in Madrid, Spain.
After a thrilling six-goal first leg left the series perfectly level, all eyes turn to Madrid to see who will advance to the final 16.
Atlético is favored at a -264 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-225o / +175u) goals.
Let's get into my Brugge vs. Atlético prediction.
Brugge vs. Atletico Prediction
Pick: Both Teams to Score
My Brugge vs. Atletico best bet is that both teams will find the back of the net on Tuesday.
Brugge vs. Atletico Odds
| Brugge Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 2.5 -225o / 175u | +600 |
| Atlético Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 2.5 -225o / 175u | -264 |
Brugge vs. Atletico Picks
Pick: Both Teams to Score (-150)
This Champions League season has not showcased the typical defensive strength of a Diego Simeone team. Atletico Madrid has yet to record a clean sheet in the competition this campaign.
In fact, eight of their nine European matches have seen both teams score. Those contests averaged 4.22 goals, suggesting another open and entertaining game is on the horizon.
Atletico must secure a result at home, but their defensive vulnerabilities create a clear path for the opposition.
Club Brugge will arrive in Madrid with confidence in exploiting those weaknesses. The Belgian side knows it can cause problems for this Atletico defense. Since the start of the 2024/25 season, Brugge has scored an average of 1.33 goals per Champions League away game.
Given the high stakes of a knockout round where both clubs have a chance to advance, we should see an aggressive approach from the visitors. They have the offensive quality to score, which makes this pick a solid foundation for our analysis.
Brugge vs. Atletico Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Brugge | Draw | Atlético |
|---|---|---|
| 13.8% | 15.7% | 70.5% |
Projected Total Goals
| Brugge | Total Goals | Atlético |
|---|---|---|
| 0.97 | 3.39 | 2.42 |
Brugge vs. Atletico Betting Analysis
The first leg of this playoff series was a spectacular 3-3 draw in Belgium. Atletico established a 2-0 first-half lead, but Brugge fought back to level the score. A late own goal seemed to give the Spanish side the win, but a final equalizer left the contest wide open.
This result continued Club Brugge’s recent strong form against Atletico; they are now unbeaten in four consecutive meetings, which includes one win and three draws.
While the historical data shows a competitive series, Atletico enters this home fixture as the clear favorite. All the pressure rests on Simeone’s squad, which has expectations to make a deep run in this tournament.
At home, their record is formidable. The club has won 13 of its last 17 Champions League matches in Madrid. However, their defense has been a major concern this season, having conceded 18 goals in nine European fixtures. This opens the door for a Brugge side that proved its offensive firepower last week.
The first matchup was a very active affair. The two teams combined for 4.66 expected goals (xG), eight big chances, and 30 total shots. If the second leg produces a similar game script, goals should follow.
Brugge’s primary challenge is its away form in Europe. The team suffered heavy defeats at Sporting and Bayern, and a trip to Madrid presents a similar test. Still, with both teams able to secure a spot in the last 16, there is every reason to expect offensive intent from start to finish.
Check out the best soccer odds before you make your Club Brugge vs Atletico Madrid picks.
