Barcelona vs Porto Prediction | Champions League Best Bets
Pictured: Robert Lewandowski. (Photo by DAX Images/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Barcelona vs Porto Odds
| Barcelona Odds | -225 |
| Porto Odds | +650 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +125 |
Shakhtar Donetsk's stunning upset of Barcelona opened the door for some potential chaos in Group H, though Barcelona and Porto remain the clear favorites to advance from the group. Porto could move into first place in the group and take control with a win at the Camp Nou on Tuesday, but they're +500 underdogs to pull off the upset against the Spanish giant.
A loss for Porto could see the Portuguese side's qualification come down to the final day, when they're set to host Shakhtar in Matchweek 6.
Porto remains an elite defensive low block and counterattacking side when in Europe, and they'll be set up to frustrate Barcelona in this matchup. They held Barcelona to 21 attacking penalty area touches in the last meeting and allowed just 1.3 xG in the match. Their ability to defend deep has helped them progress into the Round of 16 in the past and will lead to a low event match on Tuesday.
Barcelona's league form has been a bit inconsistent in recent weeks after they dropped points against Rayo Vallecano over the weekend and needed stoppage time to sneak past Real Sociedad and a late penalty to beat Alaves at home before the international break.
Barcelona
You can't overreact to small samples in any sport, but there are concerning underlying numbers for 35-year-old striker Robert Lewandowski. He has averaged at least 0.75 non-penalty xG per 90 for the past decade in Germany and in Spain last season. This year, the Polish forward's numbers are down across the board. He's managed just 0.59 non-penalty xG per 90. His shot production is also way down. Lewandowski was north of four shots per 90 every year and is down to 3.01 shots per 90. Not only are his shots down, but his average shot distance is up and his xG per shot has decreased.
Given how much ball progression and auxiliary shots Barcelona lost in the summer transfer window, there's not many ways for Barcelona to remain an elite attack in Europe if Lewandowski is finally showing signs of aging.
Ilkay Gündoğan was viewed as a potential midfield plus shot getter replacement, but he's only taken one shot in his past five matches. The Xavi system hasn't maximized his chances to get forward and contribute to the attack. Barca did get Frenkie de Jong back from injury to play a full 90 minutes over the weekend, which is a major plus for their transition defense. The biggest weakness that teams have exploited for Xavi's side in the past 18 months has been the lack of transition quality. Losing Sergio Busquets presented an opportunity to get a lot younger and more athletic at that position and de Jong does help with ball circulation and defending in space.
The one clear downgrade for Barcelona is in goal with Marc-Andre Ter Stegen unlikely to play. He's been one of the best shot stoppers in Europe for multiple seasons and Inaki Pena has had little game action since joining the club last season.
Porto
The quality of the other two teams in the group hasn't been great, but Porto and Barcelona both rank in the top six for fewest expected goals conceded amongst all 32 teams in the competition. Given the decline in the Barcelona attack, Porto will be happy to sit deep and absorb pressure.
Porto's attack has run really well to score as much as it has in the Champions Legue. In the matches against Shakhtar and Royal Antwerp, most of the high quality chances and goals came from deflections and major defensive errors. They barely managed a shot in the first half of the first leg at Antwerp, and then had just 14 shots and less than 1.5 non-penalty xG in the home match against one of the worst teams in the entire competition (Antwerp).
As a whole, Porto has produced six expected goals in four matches. They had a legitimate gripe for a penalty claim against Barcelona in the first leg, but also only managed 0.7 xGF at home against a weak Barcelona transition defense that didn't have de Jong.
Barcelona vs Porto
Prediction
The market is inflated on the quality of the Barcelona attack right now and both teams are incentivized to play out a lower event match because of group scenarios.
It's more important for neither team to lose this match and open the door for Shakhtar than it is for either team to win. A win keeps Barcelona atop the group standings and could see them clinch a spot in the Round of 16. I'd bet Under 2.5 at +110 or better.
Pick: Under 2.5 (+110 or Better)
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