Bayern Munich vs Man City Odds, Pick | Champions League Quarterfinals

Bayern Munich vs Man City Odds, Pick | Champions League Quarterfinals article feature image

Adam Davy/Getty. Pictured: Pep Guardiola.

Bayern Munich vs Man City Odds

Wed, Apr. 18
3 p.m. ET

Bayern Munich Odds


Man City Odds

Over/Under3.5 (+140/ -170)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(-225 / +172)
Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Man City vs Bayern Munich was the most highly anticipated Champions League clash of the entire tournament until Manchester City's first leg domination at home put the Cityzens in commanding position to advance to the semifinal.

As the venue shifts to Munich and Allianz Arena for the second leg, Bayern need to win by three just to get to extra time. City have only conceded three goals twice in competitive matches all season, displaying how difficult of a task Bayern have ahead.

Bayern are expected to have Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting back in the middle as the central striker after he completed a full training session on Monday, but it's unclear that he'll be at full peak fitness and match sharpness after missing multiple weeks with injury. Goals have been a problem for Bayern since Thomas Tuchel took over as manager, and they'll struggle to breakdown an elite defense like Manchester City that is unlikely to take many chances in possession.

Bayern Munich Not The World Class Side They Typically Are

Bayern's attack has taken a clear step back in production in the last few weeks since the arrival of Tuchel, and now they’ll face the best team in the world with a three-goal deficit. The poor form of Serge Gnabry and Sadio Mané has only further complicated the attacking problems for Bayern. The Bavarians scored once against Hoffenheim, produced just 0.9 xG in the first leg and managed two goals in two matches combined against Freiburg. There was the four goal outburst against Dortmund in Tuchel's first match in charge, but that had more to do with Dortmund's poor goalkeeping than anything else on the day. 

Their defense held up pretty well in the first leg when playing without the ball. It was only when Bayern made mistakes in possession under pressure and turned it over deep in their own half that City were able to capitalize. High turnovers led to both the second and third goals for the Cityzens.

Bayern only attempted four shots from inside the opposition penalty area in the first leg. Two of their best opportunities came in transition moments after City committed numbers forward too, which will be more difficult to exploit against a Pep Guardiola-led side that is sure to be as conservative as possible on the night.

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Man City Cruising Through Competition

Manchester City's dominance this season has flown under the radar a bit because City aren't running away with the league title, but the treble is now a very real possibility. The Cityzens are the odds-on favorites to win the Champions League, Premier League and FA Cup. They still will have to overcome Arsenal, Real Madrid and potentially Manchester United to win it, but the addition of Erling Haaland has made it hard to model their attacking output on a game-to-game basis.

The xG data and the underlying statistics show that regression looms for the City attack, and even an attacker and finisher as good as Haaland can't possibly outrun xG forever. But thus far, regression has not come for the dominant young striker.

City did have a bit of an alarming second half against Leicester City — they conceded 2.3 xG in total despite holding 70% of the possession. That had more to do with the three-goal lead and looking ahead to Wednesday's tie, in my view. The Cityzens have actually played a more passive and less ball-dominant approach a few times this season, and to great effect. City have held less than 52% of the possession in four matches this year, and they've held the opponent under one non-penalty xG in every single match.

The most clear approach was City's trip to Arsenal, when City held the Gunners without a shot from open play in the final 50 minutes of the match. City had 37% of the ball and allowed 16 box entries to the Gunners, but they showed they can be tactically flexible and defend out of possession. That's the key toward trusting their defense against an out of form Bayern attack.

Bayern Munich vs Man City Pick

I’m expecting City to apply considerably less ball pressure in the Bayern half of the pitch with the three goal lead. As a result, Bayern are less at risk of committing high turnovers, but they’ll struggle to get numerical advantages against City in the attacking areas. The Bavarians will be vulnerable in defensive transition themselves as they have to take more and more chances in possession to score goals. That's the risk for Bayern, especially with Phil Foden now available for the Cityzens off the bench. 

Tuchel's sides are notorious for using possession to take away transition opportunities for the opponent while relying on low shot volume and high shot quality to overwhelm opponents. That's hard to do against a City side that doesn't concede big scoring chances and won't let you possess the ball in their own half.

The total sitting at three in Manchester for the first leg seemed right to me, but now it’s a shade too high with City not needing to push for more goals. My projections for this match have just 2.88 goals and I’m willing to bet under 3 at -115 or better.

Pick: Under 3 (-115 or better)

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