Bayern Munich vs PSG Odds, Pick, Prediction: Parisiens Undervalued in Champions League
Catherine Steenkeste/Getty. Pictured: Kylian Mbappe.
Bayern Munich vs PSG Odds
Bayern Munich Odds | -150 |
PSG Odds | +310 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-225 / +175) |
| Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Bayern Munich traveled to Paris in February and held on in the final 30 minutes to secure a crucial 1-0 away victory in the first leg of their blockbuster Champions League round of 16 tie against Paris Saint-Germain.
They are now a heavy favorite to advance as Bayern return home up a goal. The Bavarians are also odds-on to win this match on Wednesday despite Kylian and Lionel Messi being fit and ready to play.
Mbappé only played the final 34 minutes in that first match, and his substitution had a major impact in PSG nearly equalizing the first leg. Only a VAR check for a razor tight offside and a Yann Sommer one-on-one save denied PSG from equalizing.
Neymar will miss the second leg and the rest of the season due to injury, but PSG have more than enough firepower with Messi and Mbappé to turn this tie around if Bayern can't solve their flaws in defensive transition.
Bayern Munich Not in Peak Form
Bayern Munich beat Stuttgart in the Bundesliga on Saturday to maintain their lead at the top of the table in Germany. The Bavarians have been solid since returning from the World Cup break overall, but you can absolutely find cracks in their underlying numbers.
The biggest issue is that they're not getting elite striker level production from Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting. He's producing less than 0.5 xG per 90, which is about half of what Bayern would get from Robert Lewandowski on a per match basis last season.
Choupo-Moting's finishing has been well above xG this season, but against more talented defenses, his production has really lagged behind. He's scored three of his last four shots in the Bundesliga, which isn't really sustainable as a means of consistent production. His season-long 2.55 shots per 90 isn't great striker production in the wide open Bundesliga.
Bayern make up for this with their elite attacking midfield and wide forward production, but there's only so much that Kingsley Coman, Serge Gnabry and Jamal Musiala can do to get high quality chances from the center of the penalty area. When you're reliant on them creating from further away from the goal, that increases the variance in your attack. That played out in the first leg, where Bayern completely dominated the midfield exchanges and had PSG penned in their own half.
As a result, neither side were able to create any real chances in the first half and it was a stalemate. The problem for Bayern is that now PSG do have an outlet to break through the pressure, and he's the best wide forward in the world.
PSG Recovering From World Cup Hangover
PSG's domestic form has been average at best since returning from the World Cup break, and that's one reason to be skeptical of them finding their form on Wednesday. They needed a late miracle comeback to beat Lille at home, conceded twice to Nantes and have just a +0.4 xG difference per 90 in Ligue 1 post World Cup.
There's a lot of noise in that data though, especially when you consider that their best three players were key figures deep into the international tournament. The defense remains quite flawed and it could get exposed, but this is still an attack that has scored 11 goals in its last three Ligue 1 matches, with two of them against top six teams in the league.
The defense is also considerably more sturdy when it has both Fabian Ruiz and Marco Verratti available in the middle of the park. The two of them provided the needed ball-winning and tackling ability to shield the back line from being under consistent pressure. Verratti doesn't play all that often because he's often injured — and now coming back from suspension — but there's a notable drop off in PSG's midfield quality behind him on the depth chart.
PSG don't do much pressing of the ball out of possession to win it back when they lose the ball, which is the exact opposite of Bayern's extreme pressing approach. That contrast in styles is what makes this matchup so intriguing.
Bayern Munich vs PSG Pick
Mendes' and Mbappé's ability to combine and overlap up the Bayern right wing is what totally changed the first leg in the second half. Mendes is an excellent attacking left back and that's a major weakness in the Bayern defense right now with Benjamin Pavard suspended. Joao Cancelo is already unhappy with his limited playing time and he's unlikely to feature for Bayern on Wednesday.
The expected right back is inexperienced youngster Josip Stanisic. Julian Nagelsmann picks him for his defense, but he also could opt to go with a back three once again. The space left in behind Bayern's aggressive wing backs seems like a huge risk for Nagelsmann in this tie with a lead.
If you're able to play through the first line of pressure for Bayern, you can expose them in transition, and that's what I expect Messi, Mbappé and Mendes to do on Wednesday. Bayern will have their chances in volume at the other end, but they're likely to be lower quality given the weak point at striker.
As much as PSG's defense is vulnerable right now, the attacking firepower should expose Bayern's defense. I'd bet PSG +0.5 at -110 or better, and if this is tied late, Bayern will be protecting their lead, not aiming to add on more.
Pick: PSG +0.5 (-110 or better)
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