Bournemouth vs Burnley Prediction | Saturday Soccer Picks

Bournemouth vs Burnley Prediction | Saturday Soccer Picks article feature image

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Bournemouth vs Burnley Odds

Saturday, Oct. 28
10 a.m. ET
Bournemouth Odds+115
Burnley Odds+230
Over / Under
 -125 / +100
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

It's only late October, but it may feel like a relegation six-pointer when 19th-placed Bournemouth hosts 18th-placed Burnley on Saturday at the Vitality Stadium.

Bournemouth are still searching for their first Premier League victory through nine matches, most recently losing 2-1 to Wolves last Saturday despite gaining an early lead.

Newly promoted Burnley have one victory in their return to the top flight following a singular season in the League Championship, but they only hold a one-point edge above the Cherries after losing four in a row in the league.

These sides haven't met in the league since February of 2020, but have split two FA Cup ties since then, with the visitor emerging victorious in both.

Here is my Bournemouth vs Burnley prediction.


As discussed last week, until Wolves' visit to the Vitality last weekend, Bournemouth had faced an unusually difficult sampling of clubs over the first eight matches of its league campaign.

And there was a lurking variable in their ninth match also — a 54th-minute direct red card issued to Lewis Cook. Wolves' dominance in terms of xG generated and chances created owed almost entirely to what transpired after Bournemouth went down to 10 men.

So you could argue the Cherries have continued to be unfortunate in arriving at their poor start. But the way in which they turned three points into zero and appeared almost resigned to defeat after going down a man could also point to an erosion of belief in the dressing room under first-year manager Andoni Iraola.

The Spaniard is the oddsmakers' favorite to be the first manager sacked this season. And that kind of atmosphere has a way of impacting performances that doesn't always show up in the xG numbers or other metrics.

Wolves' winning goal certainly had the feeling of a Bournemouth side whose head isn't all there. Goalkeeper Neto played an ill-advised quick, short goal kick — while trying to grind out a draw down a man — that led to Sasa Kalajdzic's 88th-minute decider.

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Burnely boss Vincent Kompany appears to have a longer leash than Iraola, on account of the credit he's built after guiding the Clarets to a runaway League Championship title last season.

But the attacking endeavor that defined Burnley's second-tier title campaign — following their relegation from the Premier League in 2021 — has not translated to this level yet. The overall results and 18th-place standing in the table are concerning, but it might be the Clarets' inability to generate chances that is even more worrisome.

Kompany's men are generating less than 1.0 xG per match and their season-high xG created in one 90-minute contest is 1.3, most of those chances coming after Tottenham was well in control of a 5-2 victory.

On the other hand, Kompany's squad has at least demonstrated an ability to earn points away from home — with all four gained in the Premier League this season coming on their travels.

That's largely a function of the schedule — the home slate has featured both Manchester sides, Chelsea, Tottenham and Aston Villa — but it's still proof of concept for a young squad trying to gain its footing at a new level.

Bournemouth vs. Burnley

Betting Pick & Prediction

Much like Bournemouth's match last weekend, there's probably some value here on a total landing under 3.5 goals.

Neither team has scored more than two goals this season, and in 18 Premier League games between them, they've produced more than 1.3 xG exactly once. When the totals have landed higher than 3.5, it's typically been the work of opponents who possessed above-average attacking acumen.

So, the goal-bands wager on 2 or 3 total goals that cashed last week is one option here. But with the moneyline reflecting a match that would be rated as virtually even on neutral ground, I'm inclined to take a different path and parlay that total under 3.5 goals with the Clarets taking at least a point.

Burnley's best two performances this season have come against lower-tier Prem sides on the road. And even if Burnley's analytic numbers are even worse than Bournemouth's, it's the home side that has the feel of dysfunction at the moment, one I'm not convinced will be quelled until Iraola moves on.

At +130 odds and an implied 43.5% probability, it's a wager that has paid out in half of Burnley's league away games so far and four of Bournemouth's five home league fixtures.

Pick: Same-game parlay – Burnley Double Chance and Under 3.5 (+130 via BetMGM)

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