Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace Odds, Predictions, Picks | Premier League Match Preview
Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Michael Olise.
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace Odds
| Bournemouth Odds | -110 |
| Crystal Palace Odds | +275 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
Bournemouth looks for their third consecutive home victory when they host a Crystal Palace side that is still struggling to hold leads.
Bournemouth have beaten Luton Town and Everton in successive league fixtures at the Vitality Stadium, albeit with 17 days between the fixtures. And the Cherries have show a flair for the dramatic in both, coming from three down against Luton and also requiring late drama their last time out.
Palace have led all five league fixtures since Roy Hodgson's resignation, but they have taken only one victory from those. Most recently, they conceded early in the second half of a 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest that was probably a deserved result for both sides.
Bournemouth earned a 2-0 away win in these sides' previous meeting in early December on goals from Marco Sinesi and Kieffer Moore.
Read on for my Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace prediction.
Bournemouth
Even after things began to improve significantly under first-year coach Andoni Iraola, the home form had lagged the Cherries' away results for a considerable portion of the season.
Perhaps it was as simple as how the fixtures fell. The Cherries are actually unbeaten at home against teams in the bottom half of the table, but as luck would have it only played two such fixtures before Boxing Day. Palace are one of two remaining, with the other a visit from Brentford on the season's penultimate match day.
They've ridden their luck a little bit recently though. Iraloa's squad was badly outplayed before halftime of their remarkable comeback against Luton, with the Hatters every bit deserving 3-0 leaders at the break. Against Everton, Bournemouth were extremely fortunate to receive a game-winning own goal from Seamus Coleman in second-half stoppage time after Neto's goalkeeping error resulted in a late equalizer.
After a cold spell of three consecutive appearances — his longest of the season — Dominic Solanke has now scored in consecutive league fixtures again to take his total to 16 goals, the third-highest in the competition.
And American midfielder Tyler Adams made his first start and played his first full 90 since undergoing hamstring surgery last fall, and he looked every bit in vintage form, leading his side with 67 touches, four tackles and four interceptions.
Crystal Palace
So far Palace have generated more chances under new boss Oliver Glasner than in their previous iteration under Hodgson, though it's a bit too soon to tell whether it's a material improvement, a matter of squad fitness or just variance.
The Eagles really should have had the match put away two games ago when they generated 2.7 total expected goals, only to concede a leveler to Luton in the sixth minute of second-half stoppage time. But their other strong attacking performance came in a 3-0 win over Burnley in which they had the man advantage for more than a half.
However, an optimist would say Saturday's draw marked an improvement inasmuch as Palace did not go on to concede a second late goal after Chris Wood pulled Forest level in the 61st minute. In truth there were few chances for either side in the final half-hour.
That was probably a welcome bit of boredom for Palace supporters, who had seen their side concede eight goals after the 75th minute in their previous six matches, including three in second-half stoppage time.
A return from injury for winger Michael Olise could help Glasner's side generate the attack they've been lacking. He's one of four Palace players tied for the team lead with six goals despite making only 11 appearances this season.
But while a return is nearing, it's more likely to come this weekend at home against Manchester City, instead of featuring Tuesday to try and help Palace to a first away win since early November.
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace
Prediction
The analytics say what they say. But it's hard to look at what Palace have done away from home this season — or what Bournemouth has done against lower-half foes at home — and come away with the belief a Palace win is close to as likely as a draw.
So one place there is value here is in a home no bet wager on the draw at -120 odds that suggests a 54.5% implied probability that a game that isn't a Bournemouth win finishes level. If the Cherries win the game, the bet pushes.
The other wager to consider is on Palace to score exactly one goal. At +145 odds and implied 40.8% probability, it's cashed in 11 of 15 Palace away games and three of Bournemouth's seven home matches against lower-half teams. And with Adams back in the fold, those multi-goal performances by visitors at the Vitality should become rarer.
Pick: Draw – home no bet (-120 via BetMGM), Crystal Palace 1 goal exact (+145 via BetMGM)
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