Bournemouth vs. Newcastle Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview (Saturday, Feb. 11)

Bournemouth in Serious Need of Points

The Cherries have been sliding down the table since league play resumed following the World Cup, with only one point earned in their last six matches.

It's easy to blame a sputtering attack for that spell. Jaidon Anthony's goal in a 1-1 draw against Nottingham Forest two matches ago is Bournemouth's only tally in the league since play resumed.

But it's been a relatively difficult run of games. The worst team they've faced in that stretch, Nottingham Forest, currently sit 13th.

Even so, with backing from new owner Bill Foley, Bournemouth were one of the busier teams in the winter transfer window. Among the acquisitions aimed at boosting that attack: Dango Ouattara, Antoine Semenyo and Hamed Traore.

When Bournemouth do score, it generally comes in bunches. On seven occasions they've recorded multiple goals and in two games they've scored once.

Newcastle Looking For Boost From Returning Attackers

Howe's Magpies had kept six consecutive clean sheets in the league until last weekend's 1-1 draw at home against West Ham.

But that defensive excellence — combined with a run to the League Cup final — has perhaps papered over an attack that has also been stalled, though not quite to the extent of Bournemouth's.

The Magpies have five league goals since the World Cup, and more than half of those came in a 3-0 Boxing Day win over Leicester.

Leading scorers Miguel Almiron and Callum Wilson have one lone goal each since play resumed. The winter window was a relatively quiet one, with former Everton winger Anthony Gordon the main attacking addition.

There's some hope of Howe's squad adding attacking strength from within. Striker Aleksandr Isak could return from yet another short-term layoff on Saturday. Bruno Guimares will serve only the second of a three-match suspension following his red card in leg two of the League Cup semifinals.

Bournemouth vs. Newcastle Pick

When it feels like the trends are too obvious — in this case pointing toward a lower total — it's worth looking for evidence that a reversal could be coming.

You might find that in the recent xG totals from both teams' games since play resumed following the World Cup. We've seen 12 goals scored in Bournemouth's six matches, which generated 15.9 xG between teams.

And we've only seen six goals scored in Newcastle's six league fixtures, despite 13.9 combined xG created.

So, a reversal is probably on the cards sooner or later, especially given Bournemouth's recent additions. And if it arrives on Saturday, there's one bet that would align both with a short-term regression and season-long trends.

That's a wager on the total finishing on exactly three goals at +310 odds and an implied 24.4% probability. It's cashed on 6-of-20 occasions between Newcastle away matches and Bournemouth's home fixtures, a 30% rate.

If the circumstances mean the over has more value than it might normally, then you're probably talking about a total landing on three. It has landed above three only thrice in the same 20-game sample.

Pick: Exact total goals – 3 (+310 via FanDuel)