Bournemouth vs. Tottenham Preview & Prediction: Sluggish Game to Unfold on Saturday

Bournemouth vs. Tottenham Preview & Prediction: Sluggish Game to Unfold on Saturday article feature image

DeFodi Images/Getty. Pictured: Eric Dier.

  • Tottenham returns from the Champions League with a visit to Bournemouth in the Premier League.
  • Is there value on betting Spurs or the Cherries?
  • See why Anthony Dabbundo advocates for betting the total.

Bournemouth vs. Tottenham Odds

Bournemouth Odds+410
Tottenham Odds-145
Over/Under2.5 (-112 / -108)
Day | TimeSaturday |  10 a.m. ET
How To WatchPeacock
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

The end of Tottenham's midweek match at home in the Champions League was mired in controversy after VAR ruled out Spurs last-minute winning goal for offside. Spurs had a chance to clinch the group title right there and not need to worry about the midweek trip to Marseille on Tuesday.

Now that they didn't win and still need a result on the final day in France, Antonio Conte is in a tough spot with the managing of his lineup on Saturday when Spurs visit Bournemouth.

Tottenham have played a ton of matches this month between the Champions League and the Premier League and they have their fair share of medium and short-term injuries to contend with.

Bournemouth didn't play in the midweek because they're not in Europe, but the Cherries did lose 2-0 in London to West Ham on Monday Night Football. It's a bad spot for Spurs in the schedule with uncertainty over whether the preferred wing backs and attacking talent will be ready for Saturday.

Combine that with Spurs' struggles as a whole right now and Saturday's road match will be more difficult than it seems.

Bournemouth In Offensive Rut

No team in the Premier League has attempted fewer shots from open play this season than Bournemouth. However, the Cherries have represented themselves well defensively at home since rejoining the Premier League.

They have conceded 1.1 xGA at home this season, which is considerably better than they've been on their travels. Bournemouth have allowed the most xGA in away matches in the Premier League with 12.6 xGA conceded in six matches (2.1 per match).

In other words, Bournemouth are a full goal worse per match on the road than they've been on home soil this season. The attack has been bad everywhere, though. Bournemouth are 17th in xThreat, 20th in shots per match and 19th in big scoring chances.

They don't do much to progress the ball into the penalty area either. Spurs can be had right now because they're not dealing with pressure well and are struggling to retain the ball, but Bournemouth have no clear plan to disrupt Spurs' possession and will surely be more focused on preventing any and all transition opportunities for a lethal Spurs attack in space.

Tottenham Looking For Better Performances

Tottenham have not been at their best in the last month under Antonio Conte. Spurs played excellently down the stretch of last season with title winning form and a +1 xGD in the second half of the season. This season, Spurs have a +4 xG difference after 11 league matches. That's not even really good enough to get top four without some positive variance going their way.

The shot numbers have gone down for both Harry Kane and Heung-min Son. The ball progression and chance creation around them has also dropped off as both Dejan Kuluvsevki and Richarlison are injured. They don’t have enough creative and progressive passing in the team and the result is that a defensive low block has stymied them for large parts of this season. 

If Spurs aren’t able to thrive in transition or create off of set pieces, they don’t create much at all. Bournemouth have the worst attack in the league and will struggle to create much of anything against Spurs excellent penalty area defense.

Conte said in his presser on Friday that there were concerns over the status of center backs Cristian Romero and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg ahead of this match. Both could make it more difficult for Spurs to easily progress the ball into the final third to create chances. Even when Spurs get to the final third, they've lacked a cutting edge.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Continuing to pick up points in the league is important for Spurs, but advancing in the Champions League is the top priority for Tottenham ahead of the World Cup break. Spurs will surely have one eye on Tuesday's trip to Marseille if they do get a lead in this match. 

The moneyline looks right to me and Spurs still do an excellent job defending in the penalty area, but the Cherries should make scoring difficult for Tottenham.  Spurs aren’t in form or creating enough at the moment and for that reason, I like the under 2.5 at -115 or better. 

The Pick: Under 2.5 (-115 or better)

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