Brentford vs Brighton Predictions, Odds, Picks | Premier League Match Preview
NurPhoto/Getty. Pictured: Danny Welbeck.
Brentford vs Brighton Predictions
| Brentford Odds | +137 |
| Brighton Odds | +170 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188 / +150 |
Brentford had one of their most dominant performances of the season in the Bees' 1-1 draw with Manchester United on Saturday in London. The Bees had 3.2 expected goals, 31 shots and 77 touches in the Red Devils penalty area, but they didn't score until their final shot to equalize late in stoppage time. That match has largely been the story of the Bees' season — Brentford sit 15th despite a positive expected goal differential because of poor finishing variance at both ends of the pitch.
The Bees will play a second consecutive home match on Wednesday when Brighton visit West London. The Seagulls took an early 1-0 lead at Anfield on Sunday and did a solid job of limiting Liverpool's offensive explosiveness for large stretches of that match. Despite their efforts, Liverpool found two goals and a Mo Salah winner in the second half to leave Brighton with zero points from their efforts.
The story surrounding Brighton right now is off the pitch, where Roberto De Zerbi has publicly said he hasn't signed a new contract with the club and this has raised doubt about whether he'll remain at the club after the season. On the pitch, Brighton's attack has struggled to create chances while its defense may actually be underrated by the market.
Find my Brentford vs Brighton predictions and Premier League match preview below.
Brentford
Brentford's biggest edges in this matchup are where the Bees often make up for their lacking possession and territorial dominance in the Premier League: set pieces and attacking transition. Brentford project to have considerable edges in this match in dead ball situations at both ends of the pitch.
The Bees are third offensively in xG per set piece, while Brighton are 14th defensively. At the other end, Brighton are just 15th in set piece efficiency, while the Bees are second in xG allowed per set piece. Brentford's set piece edge was nullified in the first meeting, mainly because Brentford couldn't sustain possession in the Brighton half long enough to even earn dangerous set piece situations.
Brentford rely on crosses into the penalty area more than any other team, and Brighton dp have both of their first choice fullbacks available. Brighton are second at preventing crosses into the box this season and most of Brighton's struggles in transition defense come straight through the center of midfield.
Every year, there's one or two teams who run really badly from a variance perspective and this season, it's Brentford and Everton. The Bees have three league wins since December began, despite finishing tied or ahead on expected goals seven times. The goalkeeping has been an issue all year and the finishing in attack has been an issue of late, but Brentford are still getting some market respect by being a favorite here.
Brighton
The Seagulls' totals in matches against English opposition are quietly 5-1-1 to the under in the last seven, with the lone exception being a five goal Brighton outburst against lowly Sheffield United where Brighton played up a man after the 13th minute. Brighton will have the majority of the possession in this match, but Brentford are still a high quality low block and counter team that can force Brighton into a lot of possession in non-dangerous areas that doesn’t really lead to big scoring chances.
Brighton especially miss the elite dribbling ability of Kaoru Mitoma to break down lower defensive blocks. Combine his absence with the fact the defense is quietly a top six unit by expected goals allowed per 90 minutes this season and you start to see why Brighton totals have been inflated in the market for a bit now.
This is also a second consecutive away match for Brighton with a similar starting XI on a short turnaround, so it’s easy to see this game being lower event than normal due to fatigue.
It's difficult to press Brighton effectively unless you're a truly elite out of possession team like Liverpool or Arsenal, who both had success in forcing high turnovers and making Brighton a bit uncomfortable away from home. The other team who had a ton of success in this way was actually Luton Town, whose energy and intensity held Brighton below 80% pass completion rate.
Brentford vs Brighton
Prediction
Given what we know about Brentford manager Thomas Frank's usual approach against teams with clearly superior passing quality, the Bees are likely to opt to be more passive out of possession. Brentford still don't concede many big scoring chances and while Brentford's attack is back to full strength with the return of Mbeumo, Brighton aren't playing these explosive, back and forth, and wide open matches like last year or even early season Brighton did.
Brighton have become a sneaky under team at present and I’d bet under 3 at -115 or better.
Pick: Under 3 (-105, play to -115)
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