Brighton vs Arsenal Pick, Prediction, Odds: Betting Value on Over/Under
Sebastian Frej/Getty. Pictured: Eddie Nketiah.
Brighton vs Arsenal Pick, Prediction, Odds
| Brighton Odds | +450 |
| Arsenal Odds | -175 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +110 |
Arsenal played a half rotated team on Wednesday against Luton Town and cruised to a comfortable 2-0 victory at home despite not playing near their best level. The Gunners still haven't trailed for a single minute of Premier League action since the calendar flipped to 2024. The Gunners have retained their best in the world defensive strength, conceding just 0.52 xGA per match since Jan. 1. That includes two matches against Liverpool and Manchester City, where the Gunners held both clubs under one expected goal.
Next up for the title challengers — who sit two points behind Liverpool and one ahead of Manchester City with eight matches to play — is a tricky road trip to Brighton on the English south coast. Arsenal handled Brighton, 2-0, at home in a relatively comfortable win in the reverse fixture. But now the matches are piling up for the Gunners, who have a critical Champions League clash against Bayern Munich looming on Tuesday.
Bukayo Saka didn't play on Wednesday, and while he is expected to return on Saturday, any decrease in his effectiveness could limit the Arsenal attack against an improved Brighton defense on Saturday.
Read on for my Brighton vs Arsenal prediction.
Brighton
Brighton's current attacking issues were on full display in the goalless draw on the road at Brentford on Wednesday. The Seagulls rank fifth in the PL in shots this season and are able to territorially control most matches against level or inferior sides. Brighton attempted 24 in its last match, but totaled just 1.1 xG and took no shots from inside eight yards of the Brentford goal.
The Seagulls haven't been able to create the high quality xG chances that defined their explosive output last season. The defensive metrics have continued to improve throughout the year, but the offense has slipped all the way to ninth in xG per match.
Brighton's injuries are certainly playing a role in this – the absence of game breakers like Kaoru Mitoma and Solly March out wide have limited the Seagulls explosiveness. Joao Pedro has returned from injury, but no Brighton regular is averaging more than 0.4 non-penalty xG per 90. Now there's manager uncertainty surrounding Roberto De Zerbi.
The Seagulls were always intriguing as an underdog because of their ability to play on the break, but even that is quite limited by the current talent available. Brighton aren't efficient at turning final third touches into box possession and big chances.
Arsenal
The primary difference between Arsenal in the first and second half has been a major improvement in their open play attacking production, headlined by the leap taken by Saka. At the midpoint of the season, Arsenal sat right around league average in goals scored from open play. They still had the dominant defense and the set play excellence, but the attack wasn't particularly fluid. On top of the Saka injury questions right now, wide forward Gabriel Martinelli is still working his way back to full fitness as well. He featured off the bench in the last two PL matches.
Arsenal put up a ton of chances and goals on Newcastle, Burnley, Sheffield United and West Ham. Those are some of the worst defenses in the PL this season by xG allowed, especially in the last two months. It’s notable because while Arsenal have had some explosive offensive games, there are still the games against quality defenses that have shown Arsenal's weaknesses in attack.
The Gunners haven’t been nearly as potent when facing Porto twice in Europe, Manchester City and even underrated Brentford and Nottingham Forest defenses. The latter two have poor goalkeeper play this year but have been solid at defending and preventing big chances.
Arsenal saw their defensive metrics fall off in the second half of last year due to injuries and ineffectiveness from Granit Xhaka, Thomas Partey and William Saliba. They had to rely on less reliable defensive players and the team started leaking goals as a result. This year, Arsenal have a fully fit back four and the defensive numbers are next-level elite.
They've conceded two league goals in seven league matches — a goalie howler from Aaron Ramsdale against Brentford and an 84th minute Joe Willock goal in a 4-0 Arsenal game against Newcastle.
Brighton vs Arsenal
Prediction
Arsenal are still just above average this season at creating chances from open play, and a not fully fit Saka will hamper their ability to generate big chances away from home. The Gunners' defense has traveled well, but it’s a tricky spot for their attack to generate enough clear chances to warrant a total at three. Brighton matches are 6-1-1 to the under in their last eight against English sides, in large part because the Seagulls don’t have their best attackers available either.
I’d bet under 3 at -120 or better on Saturday.
Pick: Under 3 (+100, play to -120)
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