Brighton vs Luton Town Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Prediction
Ralf Ibing/Getty. Pictured: Pelly Ruddock.
Brighton vs Luton Town Odds
|Luton Town Odds||+800|
|Over / Under|
-175 / +137
The Premier League begins with its first full Saturday slate as Luton Town makes their return to the English top flight for the first time since 1992 against Brighton on the English south coast. Brighton have made a lot of news off the pitch this week in their sales negotiations of midfielder Moises Caicedo to either Liverpool or Chelsea. The two clubs are bidding and vying for his services this season, but Brighton have already begun to plan for life after Caicedo and midfielder Alexis Mac Allister, who they sold to Liverpool earlier in the window.
Brighton has consistently defied expectations and beat their market rating time and time again. Entering a new season, the market wants to discount the Seagulls off these two sizable losses in midfield. Given how Brighton have scouted their replacements, however, I remain highly optimistic about their chances to stick in the top four race once again.
They're priced as the eighth-best team in the league. My power rating is higher than that because of the attacking upside that was consistently established in the spring under Roberto De Zerbi.
The Seagulls lose both Caicedo and Mac Allister, but they may have supplemented their production through the aggregate. Brighton bought Joao Pedro, who is expected to start in the central attacking midfielder role on Saturday. He had 15 goal involvements in 30 90s played for Watford in the Championship last year at age 20. That doesn't project as the next Premier League star, but De Zerbi has shown a real ability to level up attackers through his drilled ball progression patterns.
His track record with Solly March for example should provide real optimism for Pedro's skillset in this system. He doesn't do a ton of passing, but his plus ball carrying and shot production should work in the center for Brighton. Kauro Mitoma will be left wing for Brighton and he was one of the best wide forwards in Europe last season at bringing the ball into the box.
Once in the penalty area, Brighton have Even Ferguson and Danny Welbeck — both of which shined in their roles last season and posted solid forward output. Welbeck has consistently sat between 0.4-0.5 xG per 90 and Ferguson is young but has the potential to reach higher than that this season.
The loss of Caicedo will hurt Brighton's ability to retain possession when pressed by better and more aggressive teams, but that doesn't really apply in this matchup with Luton. Instead, they'll benefit from Billy Gilmour and Mahmoud Dahoud's plus passing range.
Luton Town will be playing most of their early matches this season on the road due to renovations at Kenilworth Road, and the Hatters don't enter the new campaign with a clean bill of health. There are multiple key players from last year's season that will be out on Saturday. Midfielder Jordan Clark — six goal involvements in 34 90s last year — and defender Dan Potts are both out for multiple weeks.
The Hatters will also be down two of their top three center back choices and could be starting a new pair of defenders together with little experience playing with one another. Carlton Morris will be expected to carry the goalscoring load for Luton this year after 20 goals in the Championship last year in his age 26 season.
Morris averaged 0.51 xG + xA per 90 which is solid forward production for the Championship. If you scale it down by the standard conversion rate of 20% coming up to the PL, though, it's a clearly below average attacking output for a central striker.
The Hatters did make nine new signings in the offseason to try to stay up, but it's going to take some time for them to sort out their best XI and try to compete at this level. There will be some ugly results away from home against the top sides to start.
Brighton vs Luton Town
Betting Pick & Prediction
Brighton showed some real defensive flaws toward the end of the season, but Luton Town doesn't have the out of possession or defensive profile to really trouble the Seagulls. Gone are the days where Brighton were inefficient in the final third at finishing chances. With Mitoma and Pedro constantly bringing the ball into the penalty area, I expect a ton of defensive pressure on the Luton Town penalty area.
The Seagulls should be closer to a two-goal favorite in my view, and I'd bet Brighton -1.5 at -120 or better.