Brighton vs Newcastle Odds, Pick, Predictions | Premier League Betting Analysis
Clive Mason/Getty. Pictured: Kaoru Mitoma.
Brighton vs Newcastle Odds
|Over / Under|
-200 / +162
Brighton are once again in the Saturday primetime slot at home as the Seagulls welcome Newcastle to the English South Coast. They took their first league defeat of the season at home to West Ham last weekend, 3-1, while Newcastle lost their second consecutive match on Sunday. The Magpies had a 1-0 lead at home against Liverpool and were up a man, but two late goals from Darwin Nunez left Newcastle without any points.
The market has moved toward Newcastle since the Magpies opened as a +0.25 goal underdog to the point where Newcastle are now a slight favorite on the road at most sportsbooks. Newcastle are expected to be without key center back Sven Botman after he left Sunday's contest with an injury. Brighton won't have Danny Welbeck up top to lead the attack, but they have ample depth in attacking quality to make up for his loss now that Brighton have` added Ansu Fati on loan from Barcelona.
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As good as Brighton have been under Roberto De Zerbi, there are clear defensive vulnerabilities. They lost both Levi Colwill and Moises Caicedo to Chelsea and haven't spent much to replace them in the key defensive areas. De Zerbi played a hyper-aggressive style in the second half of last season and the result was a lot of attacking production but a league average defense. The Seagulls continue to profile around league average defensively in 2023-24, but any concerns about a fall off from the attack aren't warranted by the current numbers through three matches.
Brighton have produced 7.7 xG this season, which is the most in the Premier League through three matches. The Seagulls are first in shots, first in passes and crosses into the penalty area and second in passes into the final third. The loss of Alexis Mac Allister to Liverpool hasn't at all slowed down Brighton's ball progression machine.
The insertion of Evan Ferguson into the starting lineup raises Brighton's offensive ceiling even further. Welbeck has provided solid production in that central role, but Ferguson's production could be considerably higher if he takes the expected step forward. Not only do Brighton have the most shots per 90 thus far, but they rank above average in xG per shot.
Newcastle have played the toughest opening three fixtures in the entire league, so you can't overreact to the underlying numbers at this point. They were unfortunate to not take all three points against Liverpool, even though their conservative nature hindered them from taking more advantage of playing up a man against the Reds. The Magpies also dominated Aston Villa at home on the opening day, a result which has aged well following Villa's consecutive dominant victories against Everton and Burnley in the ensuing weeks.
The real question is how well Newcastle will adjust to the likely loss of Botman in the central defensive line. The most likely option for Eddie Howe is to move Dan Burn into center back and play Matt Targett at left back. The Magpies had their first choice back line available for almost all of last season and that was a major reason why they had the league's second-best defense in terms of expected goals allowed.
It's fair to expect some regression from those numbers, which is their primary advantage against Brighton in this matchup.
Newcastle match up quite well with Brighton. The Magpies forced the most high turnovers in the Premier League last season and should be able to out-physical a relatively limited Brighton midfield athletically with Billy Gilmour and Pascal Gross. Once Newcastle win the ball, they have one of the best transition attacks in the league.
Despite this potential matchup advantage, the Magpies are getting too much market respect.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle
Pick & Prediction
Brighton and Newcastle are right next to one another in my Premier League power ratings. You'd have to think that Newcastle were a considerably better team than the Seagulls to warrant pricing them as a coin flip at Brighton. The Seagulls posted more than 2 xG per 90 under De Zerbi last year. Brighton also produced more than 2 xG per 90 on home soil last year.
The attack has shown no signs of slowing down early in 2023-24. While Newcastle are clearly better defensively, Brighton's attacking superiority makes them about even teams overall. Throw in home field advantage and I make Brighton closer to the -0.25 the market previously had. Now lined as a tossup, I'd bet the Seagulls draw no bet at -115 or better.