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Bundesliga Best Bets: How to Bet Bayern, Leverkusen & Frankfurt Matches

Bundesliga Best Bets: How to Bet Bayern, Leverkusen & Frankfurt Matches article feature image
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DeFodi Images/Getty. Pictured: Joshua Kimmich.

The Bundesliga returns to action for the first time since the World Cup on Friday as Bayern Munich travel to take on RB Leipzig.

That’s the highlight match of the full weekend in Germany, but there are other high profile storylines across the league.

Sebastien Haller makes his season debut for Borussia Dortmund on Sunday at home against Augsburg after beating testicular cancer, and Borussia Monchengladbach host Bayer Leverkusen as Leverkusen look to move back into the top half of the table.

Freiburg are the closest challenger to Bayern right now and they travel to seventh-placed Wolfsburg, while the fading Union Berlin host Hoffenheim on Saturday.

Here are my three best bets for the weekend Bundesliga slate:

Bundesliga Best Bets

RB Leipzig vs. Bayern Munich

Leipzig Odds +280
Bayern Odds -125
Draw +310
Over/Under 3.5 (+102 / -124)
Day | Time Friday |  2:30 p.m. ET
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Bayern come into this match with some uncertainty in defense and in goal. Yann Sommer is expected to start after signing with the club on Wednesday.

He’ll replace the injured Manuel Neuer in goal and he’s not nearly as good of a sweeper keeper and ball-playing keeper as Neuer is. First choice left back Lucas Hernandez is out for the season with an injury and Sadio Mané is out for the attack. Mané had been the most centrally focused striker for Bayern in replacing Robert Lewandowski.

RB Leipzig are the second best team in the league based on all underlying numbers and they’ve taken a major step forward under Marco Rose. Since Rose joined the club, Leipzig are almost at Bayern levels of production and underlying numbers. They have a +1.14 xG difference per match with 2.26 xG produced per match.

Leipzig aren’t without their injuries for this match, though. Die Roten Bullen will not have leading goal scorer Christopher Nkunku, Timo Werner or goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi, all out to injury. The first choice backline and midfield will be available for them, however, including Mohamed Simakan and World Cup standout Josko Gvardiol.

My projections make Bayern +110 to win this match and I’d take Leipzig +0.5 or double chance at -105 or better.

Dabbundo’s Pick: RB Leipzig +0.5 (-105 or better)

Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Schalke 04

Frankfurt Odds -310
Schalke Odds +710
Draw +410
Over/Under 2.5 (-194 / +156)
Day | Time Saturday |  9:30 a.m. ET
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There’s a lot of air in Eintracht Frankfurt’s underlying numbers this season and they are inflated at home against the last-placed team in the Bundesliga. No team in the league has benefitted more from poor opposition goalkeeping than Frankfurt, as it has accounted for 7.5 extra goals this season in total. 

Schalke have had the worst goalkeeper play based on post-shot xG difference. You could argue that would suggest Frankfurt will continue to run really well in finishing, but really it’s very noisy and difficult to predict how a team will perform relative to post-shot xG. It’s best to expect regression toward the league and goalkeeper’s career norms.

Schalke aren’t the worst team in the league based on underlying numbers at all. They defend crosses well too, which is a major key against a Frankfurt offense that is top five in crosses completed. Schalke’s defense is just 14th in xG allowed this season.

They are a decent buy low as they attempt to fight off relegation from the Bundesliga and now they get an inflated Frankfurt.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Schalke +1.5 (-120 or better)

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Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Bayer Leverkusen

Gladbach Odds +165
Leverkusen Odds +140
Draw +270
Over/Under 2.5 (-190 / +154)
Day | Time Sunday |  11:30 a.m. ET
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After Leipzig vs. Bayern, Gladbach and Leverkusen is the second-highest profile matchup of the weekend in the Bundesliga.

Gladbach lost goalkeeper Yann Sommer to Bayern Munich this week but have retained Marcus Thuram to this point. In years past, Leverkusen and Gladbach were both near the top of the German pressing list, but that has changed this season.

Manager Daniel Farke has them playing considerably slower in possession and more patient out of possession. Opponents’ pass completion percentage against them is top five in the league, meaning there is little pressing from Gladbach.

Leverkusen thrive in transition moments and getting in behind, but there won’t be a ton of those opportunities against a less press-happy Gladbach defense. Leverkusen are 14th in passes into the penalty area and 12th in penalty area touches, so there’s some questions about how legitimate Leverkusen’s top five offense by xG per match is.

Gladbach also have one of the most dramatic home and away splits in the entire league. The Foals have a +0.7 xG difference per match at home and are conceding 1.2 xGA per match. Away from home, the Foals have a -0.57 xG difference and are allowing 1.7 xGA.

The market has moved sharply toward Gladbach in the last two weeks after Leverkusen were as low as +100 on the three-way moneyline. My projections suggest that Gladbach should be a home favorite in this match as the team ratings are comparable overall.

I’d bet Gladbach on the draw no bet line at -115 or better.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Gladbach PK (-115 or better)

 

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