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Bundesliga Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Including Wager From Eintracht Frankfurt & Arminia Bielefeld (Jan. 21-23)

Bundesliga Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Including Wager From Eintracht Frankfurt & Arminia Bielefeld (Jan. 21-23) article feature image
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Alexandre Simoes/Borussia Dortmund via Getty Images. Pictured: Borussia Dortmund star Erling Haaland.

We are 19 matches into the Bundesliga season and conversations have begun about whether Borussia Dortmund has any shot of erasing the six-point gap between them and Bayern Munich, which would end the reigning champion’s run of dominance.

Dortmund’s 5-1 home beatdown of Freiburg, combined with Bayern’s recent loss to Borussia Mönchengladbach has trimmed the league leader’s edge atop the table, but the club has yet another difficult game at Hoffenheim this weekend as one of the two highlights fixtures in the German top flight.

Two underachievers — RB Leipzig and Wolfsburg — face off in Red Bull Arena on Sunday after they drew 1-1 in the reverse fixture. The Bavarians travel to the nation’s capital for a game against struggling Hertha Berlin, while Eintracht Frankfurt looks to get right against relegation fodder Arminia Bielefeld.

Here’s my three favorite picks across the Bundesliga landscape:

Bundesliga Best Bets

Frankfurt vs. Arminia Bielefeld

Frankfurt Odds -130
Arminia Odds +360
Draw +290
Over/Under 2.5 (-115 / +100)
Day | Time Friday | 2:30 p.m. ET
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Arminia Bielefeld is unbeaten in four league matches despite being outplayed or underperforming expectations in all of them. Arminia managed consecutive victories against both Bochum and RB Leipzig, scoring four goals and conceding none despite allowing nearly three expected goals and producing 1.5 xG themselves.

Most recently, Bielefeld scored two late goals to undeservedly tie Freiburg on the road, losing the xG battle by a 2.2-0.9 margin. They then came from behind to manage a 2-2 draw with last-placed Greuther Fürth at home in a game that was dominated by Fürth for the middle 45 minutes, and saw Arminia fail to generate consistent chances against the league’s worst defense.

For the season, Arminia has been extremely fortunate defensively: they’ve allowed just 26 goals despite conceding 32.6 xG and ranking in the bottom four in shots conceded, big scoring chances yielded and being second worst in box entries allowed.

Eintracht Frankfurt’s biggest weakness has been conceding big scoring chances when the press under manager Oliver Glasner has gotten passed through, leaving the backline exposed. Arminia is the worst team in the league at producing big scoring chances and passing through pressure, so I think Frankfurt should have no issues taking all three points.

Pick: Eintracht Frankfurt ML (-130 or better)

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Hoffenheim vs. Dortmund

Hoffenheim Odds +215
Dortmund Odds +110
Draw +285
Over/Under  3.5 (+100 / -120)
Day | Time Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET
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Dortmund and Hoffenheim played one of the wildest games of the entire Bundesliga season in their first meeting, which resulted in a 3-2 home win for Dortmund. There were five second-half goals in that game, including an Erling Haaland stoppage-time winner after a 90th-minute Hoffenheim equalizer.

The sides meet again Saturday and both attacks come into this game a bit overinflated in the market. Dortmund has averaged 1.75 non-penalty xG in the league but scored 2.17 goals from those chances. That’s 25% over-performance of their xG numbers, which isn’t sustainable in the long term.

Hoffenheim isn’t quite as extreme, but they average 1.81 goals per 90 minutes from about 1.6 xG/90 minutes and have also been really unlucky defensively. All of the regression indicators point toward the under here.

My projection makes the total 3.20 goals, so I’m going to split my play on the first half under and the full game under. Both defenses have been unlucky to concede as much as they have and the attacks are running well above their xG totals, plus have some regression coming in front of net.

Betting Dortmund unders are never fun, and while this one is tough to stomach because of how much respect the attacks get, both clubs feature top six Bundesliga defenses as well

Pick: 1H Under 1.25 (+100) | Total Under 3.5 Goals (-120)

RB Leipzig vs. Wolfsburg

RB Leipzig Odds -190
Wolfsburg Odds +500
Draw +340
Over/Under 2.5 (-145 / +110)
Day | Time Sunday | 9:30 a.m. ET
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Another game for Wolfsburg, another 90 minutes of chance after chance wasted as it drew Hertha Berlin 0-0 at home last week.

Wolfsburg created 1.6 xG and four big scoring chances, pushing its xGDiff over for the season to exactly even. Yet, because of poor finishing and some bad luck, they have a -13 goal difference and are flirting with the relegation picture.

These sides played to a 1-1 draw earlier this year in a game that featured 2.8 xG and was relatively wide open with 21 total shots, but only six of those shots hit the target.

Wolfsburg’s attack is on the brink of a breakout game given how much it has underperformed on xG and that game just might come on Sunday against a Leipzig defense that has been bad and lucky. Only the aforementioned Arminia and Bochum have had opponents finish chances against them at a worse rate than Leipzig this year, which has allowed the seventh-most big scoring chances and rank ninth in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes allowed.

Despite Wolfsburg’s past years as an excellent defense, they’ve conceded a lot more big scoring chances (ninth) and that’s an issue when you’re facing a potent Leipzig attack that ranks second in xG for and ranks only behind Bayern in big chances created.

This game should feature goals at both ends of the pitch and my projection for the game is 2.97 goals, so I’m happy to grab over 2.75 goals via the alternative total number at -110 or better.

Pick: Total Over 2.75 Goals (-110)

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