Hertha Berlin vs. Eintracht Frankfurt Odds, Picks and Predictions: How to Bet Friday’s Bundesliga Match (Friday, Sept. 25)

Hertha Berlin vs. Eintracht Frankfurt Odds

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The second week of Bundesliga action begins Friday afternoon at the Olympiastadion in Berlin as Hertha Berlin hosts Eintracht Frankfurt.

Hertha and Frankfurt both took on two of the Bundesliga's bottomfeeders in the opening week and produced dominant performances, even if the result didn’t quite come for Frankfurt. Hertha squashed Werder Bremen in a 4-1 game it also dominated on xG.

But Frankfurt presents a much more difficult defensive challenge than Bremen did. Frankfurt tied 1-1 with Bundesliga newcomers Arminia Bielefeld despite winning the xG battle 2.47-0.62. It dominated the entire flow of the game, created the game’s three best chances, and hit the post, only to settle for a single point.

When looking at Frankfurt and Hertha’s underlying xG numbers dating back to last season, Frankfurt clearly shows it's the better team, especially at preventing big scoring chances. It finished 16 goals better (+8.17 npxG difference) than Hertha (-8.25 npxG difference) in 2019-20 and created more xG in the post-restart period than every team except Bayern and Hoffenheim. While it did struggle defensively in the post-lockdown period, I equate that more to having nothing to play for than actual defensive regression.

Over the course of the season, Frankfurt allowed very few high xG chances — only 23 shots allowed from inside the 6-yard box, fewer than every team that finished in the Bundesliga’s top five. Compare this to Hertha, which struggled mightily to generate chances from that area of the field. Berlin produced 17 total shots in 34 games from inside the 6-yard box. 

When these two teams met in June toward the end of the Bundesliga season, not much was on the line. But the exact pattern of play I described above occurred. Led by immobile-but-effective striker Bas Dost, Frankfurt generated four shots inside Hertha’s 6-yard box. Hertha had zero from inside the Frankfurt 6-yard box and two from inside the box as Frankfurt cruised to a 4-1 win.

Hertha’s press dominated Bremen in its opener to the season, but even so, Bremen generated 16 shots and five from inside the box. Werder didn’t create a ton of xG, but there are cracks in this Hertha defense that leave me concerned ahead of a step up in competition. Against Frankfurt — which boasted a pressing rate in passes per defensive action that ranked third in the Bundesliga — Hertha will struggle to control the game flow. 

I make Frankfurt a small favorite in this match, and when you consider that the Bundesliga home-field effects were reduced by 100% in the matches post-lockdown, there appears to still be quite a bit of home-field advantage baked into this number. There’s always a danger of small sample sizes, but the largest impact at home in soccer matches has proven to be referee decisions under the pressure of home fans. With that gone, visiting teams have performed much better. 

The pick: Frankfurt PK (+115 or better)

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