Burnley vs Chelsea Odds, Picks, Predictions | Premier League Preview
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Burnley vs Chelsea Odds
| Burnley Odds | +350 |
| Chelsea Odds | -138 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -134 / +105 |
Both Burnley and Chelsea will be looking for their first back-to-back league wins when they meet on Saturday at Turf Moor.
Chelsea have consistently created chances in their first season under Mauricio Pochettino, and on Monday they finally took a step toward putting their finishing struggles behind them with a 2-0 win in a West London derby at Fulham.
Two days later, Burnley at last picked up their first league win, 2-1 over fellow newly promoted side Luton Town in a match rescheduled from mid-August due to incomplete stadium construction at Luton's Kenilworth Road.
Chelsea are unbeaten with seven wins in their last nine against Burnley, with all of those fixtures coming in league play before Burnley were relegated following the 2021-2022 season.
Read on for my Burnley vs Chelsea pick.
Burnley
Burnley were lauded for their proactive and attractive play in their Championship campaign under manager Vincent Kompany, but so far it's been a struggle to replicate that approach in the top flight.
The Clarets have yet to earn any league points at Turf Moor in four attempts. And even in finally securing a 2-1 win at Luton on Tuesday, Burnley created only 1.1 xG on the evening, bringing their season total to just 5.8 xG on the season.
Ironically, Chelsea's low-water mark of 1.3 xG created in a match is also Burnley's high-water point, and more than half of that was created after going down by multiple goals in a 5-2 home loss to Tottenham.
In fairness, Burnley have had as tough an early itinerary as anyone in their return to the Premier League after a year away, playing three of last year's top four and five of the top eight in their opening seven fixtures.
The analytics and the summer transfer totals may suggest Chelsea are another team of that caliber, but nonetheless this could feel like a better chance at points than previous home dates with defending champions Manchester City, Tottenham or an in-form Aston Villa.
Chelsea
Chances never guarantee goals, but between the rate and consistency with which Chelsea have made scoring opportunities this season, conventional logic suggested the goals would eventually come.
Even after striking twice in the first half at Craven Cottage, the Blues have still scored about six fewer goals than their xG metrics predict.
And it's been consistent, relatively high-quality chance creation; Pochettino's squad has generated at least 1.3 xG in every game they've played, and they are averaging a very healthy 0.13 xG per non-penalty shot attempt.
Armando Broja started at center forward and scored against Fulham in place of the suspended Nicolas Jackson, who has only one Premier League goal but did score the only goal in a 1-0 win over Brighton in the third round of the League Cup.
But it wasn't as though the replacement No. 9 was particularly dangerous, and his goal was a fortunate redirection of Tim Ream's attempted clearance. And with Jackson scoring in his last appearance in the Leagues Cup, either man could get the nod up top on Saturday.
Burnley vs Chelsea
Pick & Prediction
There's a sense that both teams may have better days ahead after each one picked up an encouraging result in their last league games, as well as analytics that suggest both sides are due some better outcomes.
I'm not sure there's a correct side on this one. And instead of trying to pick one, the better approach is to conceive a few specific ways the match might more likely play out, and then back one of them.
I'm playing the possibility the floodgates finally opening for a chance-rich Chelsea against an opponent that has had trouble staying in games when they fall behind.
Both of the Blues' league victories have come by multiple goals and they're still underachieving their xG and xGDiff totals by a fair margin.
At +200 odds and a 33.3% implied probability, I think there's definitely better value there than on the Chelsea moneyline. But I could also make the case for backing Burnley to earn their first home points — most likely in a higher-scoring encounter.
Pick: Chelsea -1.5 (+205 via FanDuel)
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