Burnley (4-16-6) and Chelsea (12-6-8) will face off today at 10:00 a.m. EST at Stamford Bridge in London, England.
Chelsea is favored at a -442 price, with the over/under set at 3.5 (+105o / -143u) goals.
Let's get into my Burnley vs. Chelsea prediction.
Burnley vs. Chelsea Prediction
Pick: Chelsea to Win & Under 5 Total Goals
My Burnley vs. Chelsea best bet is on the Blues to win the match, but with the total staying under five.
Burnley vs. Chelsea Odds
| Burnley Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +120 | 3.5 +105o / -143u | +1000 |
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -175 | 3.5 +105o / -143u | -442 |
Burnley vs. Chelsea Picks, Parlay
Leg 1:Chelsea to Win
Leg 2:Under 5 Total Goals
The odds for a straight Chelsea victory offer very little return, as bookmakers have priced them as the overwhelming favorite. The Asian handicap line sits at Chelsea -2.0, which shows the market expects a comfortable win. However, a more valuable Burnley vs. Chelsea pick combines the win with a total goals angle.
The foundation for this pick is Chelsea’s performance at home. Only a single Premier League match at Stamford Bridge this season has seen five or more goals. That contest was an unusual game against West Ham, where Chelsea had to rally from an early 0-2 deficit to win 3-2. The reverse match between these clubs also supports a lower-scoring affair; Chelsea won 2-0 in November in a game that produced just 2.16 combined expected goals (xG).
Burnley’s offensive struggles add another layer of confidence to this selection. They possess the lowest xG in the entire league and have failed to score in nine of their 26 matches, the fourth-highest mark in the division. It is difficult to see them create enough quality chances to push the total toward the five-goal mark. Even if Burnley finds the net, a 2-1 or 3-1 victory for Chelsea still results in a win for this bet, which provides a solid cushion.
Burnley vs Chelsea Live Odds (Kalshi)
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Burnley vs. Chelsea Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Burnley | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | 13.0% | 79.3% |
Projected Total Goals
| Burnley | Total Goals | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 0.77 | 3.52 | 2.75 |
Burnley vs. Chelsea Betting Analysis
The historical record in this matchup is heavily skewed in Chelsea's favor. The Blues have lost just one of their last 19 Premier League meetings against Burnley and are currently on a 12-match unbeaten run in the series. When these two teams met earlier in the season, Chelsea secured a routine 2-0 road victory.
The motivation for both sides is clear. Chelsea is in a tight race for a Champions League spot and cannot afford to drop points against a team at the bottom of the table. For Burnley, the situation is dire. They are nine points from safety and running out of opportunities to stage a miraculous escape from relegation.
A look at the underlying metrics reveals a significant mismatch. Chelsea boasts the highest xG in the Premier League, meaning they consistently create high-quality scoring opportunities. They will face a Burnley defense that has conceded the highest expected goals against (xGA) in the league. This suggests Chelsea’s attackers should find plenty of space to operate.
Furthermore, Burnley’s defense has been particularly poor on the road. The club has not managed to keep a clean sheet in any of its last 23 away Premier League matches. All signs point to a controlled victory for the home side, making our Burnley vs. Chelsea prediction a well-supported play.
Check out the best soccer odds before you make your Burnley vs Chelsea picks.
