Burnley vs. Manchester United EPL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Lay It With Man U

Burnley vs. Manchester United EPL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Lay It With Man U article feature image
Credit:

Peter Powell – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Bruno Fernandes (left), Marcus Rashford (center) and Anthony Martial.

  • Even though Burnley and Manchester United are at opposite ends of the table, both clubs are in a good run of form heading into Tuesday's match.
  • Bookmakers have tabbed Man United as big favorites, though, and Matt Trebby sees value on their purple patch continuing against Burnley:

Burnley vs. Manchester United Odds

Burnley Odds +600 [BET NOW]
Manchester United Odds -220 [BET NOW]
Draw +350 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-137) [BET NOW]
Time 3:15 p.m. ET
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Burnley

The Clarets have been extremely unspectacular this season. Their 15 games have seen a total of 29 goals scored, only nine of which were for them. Those nine goals are just one more than Sheffield United, who have two points (two!) through 17 games this season.

While they haven’t been great, Burnley are still five points clear of the relegation zone thanks to a good run of form over their last six matches. The Clarets have 11 points from those fixtures with wins coming over Arsenal, Wolves and Sheffield United.

Most impressively during that run, Burnley have conceded just three goals. Sean Dyche makes sure his teams are tough and difficult to break down defensively, which has shown this season.

Another positive trend for Burnley is their home form, having taken 10 points from their last four fixtures at Turf Moor.

The Clarets suffered a scare in the FA Cup on Saturday, requiring a stoppage-time equalizer and a penalty shootout to knock out MK Dons. But because their match scheduled for Jan. 3 against Fulham was suspended due to positive COVID-19 tests with the West London club, that cup tie was their only match so far in 2020.

Manchester United

Unbeaten in the Premier League since Nov. 1, Manchester United have surprisingly gotten themselves in the Premier League title race. The Red Devils have eight wins and two draws in their past 10 league games and are four behind rival Liverpool with a game in hand.

United’s underlying metrics don’t indicate that they’re playing extremely well during that stretch, but they’re grinding out results very impressively, as they did in the FA Cup on Saturday against Watford. Five of those eight wins during the 10-game run were by one goal and two were by a pair.

What stands out about United’s results this season is their away form. They have played seven games away from Old Trafford and have scored at least three goals in six of them. The one outlier was a 2-2 draw back on Boxing Day against Leicester City.

United’s 19 points from seven away league games are second in the league to Leicester’s 22, although the Foxes have played two more such fixtures.

The Red Devils’ defense has been boosted of late by Eric Bailly’s solid form, although he’s questionable for this matchup after exiting the FA Cup win over Watford with an apparent injury. He downplayed the impact of the knock on Instagram after the game.

United’s attack is led by Bruno Fernandes (11 goals and seven assists) and Marcus Rashford (seven goals and four assists). Fernandes has been an exceptional signing since coming in from Sporting Lisbon in January 2020, and he’s been especially good of late, scoring four goals and registering three assists over United’s last four league games.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

While Burnley’s form is solid and they are known to be frustrating, United have more talent and have thrived away from home this season. It might not be pretty, but I expect them to get all three points from this game.

I don’t expect Burnley to score, but I also am not expecting a memorable attacking outing from United because things like that just don’t happen at Turf Moor.

So if we don’t expect many goals and but think United will win, let’s pair the moneyline (-220) with the under at 2.5 goals (+110). That gets us up to +285, which is great value.

Pick: Parlay: Manchester United ML -220 and Under 2.5 goals +110

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