Juventus vs. Chelsea Odds, Pick, Prediction: Back Blues, Romelu Lukaku in Champions League Affair (Sept. 29)

Juventus vs. Chelsea Odds, Pick, Prediction: Back Blues, Romelu Lukaku in Champions League Affair (Sept. 29) article feature image
Credit:

Darren Walsh/Chelsea FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea star Romelu Lukaku, left, celebrates a goal with teammate Kai Havertz.

  • Global soccer heavyweights Juventus and Chelsea square off Wednesday in a star-studded Champions League matchup.
  • The visiting Blues, led by Romelu Lukaku, are favored to get past their Serie A counterparts on Italian soil.
  • Soccer analyst Jeremy Pond breaks down the confrontation below and has made a Single Game Parlay his top pick.

Juventus vs. Chelsea Odds

Juventus Odds +250
Chelsea Odds +120
Draw +235
Over/Under 2.5 (+115 / -145)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET
How To Watch Paramount+ | fuboTV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

European soccer powerhouses Juventus and Chelsea square off Wednesday, highlighting another stacked Champions League card full of solid matchups.

The Blues, currently listed as +120 moneyline favorites, will step on Italian soil inside Allianz Stadium hoping to quickly right the ship after tasting defeat for the first time this season last time out. In a battle of Premier League favorites, Chelsea was handed a difficult 1-0 home loss against Manchester City this past weekend.

On the other side, Juventus enters this meeting fresh off a 3-2 triumph over Sampdoria in Serie A action after struggling mightily out of the gate. However, the win came at a major cost times two with standouts Pablo Dybala and Álvaro Morata picking up knocks that will keep them out of this crucial confrontation.

Chelsea and Juventus earned wins in their first Group H fixtures, with the Blues picking up a 1-0 shutout against Russian side Zenit St. Petersburg and The Old Lady securing an easy 3-0 triumph against Swedish foe Malmö.

Let’s take a look at these combatants and search for some solid betting value.

Troubling Start, Key Injuries Haunting Juventus

Dominating opponents across Europe and on the domestic front has typically been the norm for La Vecchia Signora, but that hasn’t been the case thus far. Things have been more problematic than positive, with the Italian stalwart opening its campaign with just one win in five games across all competitions.

Juventus did make a positive turn of late, though, with back-to-back wins against Spezia and Sampdoria in identical 3-2 scorelines. Yet, as previously mentioned, The Old Lady suffered a crushing blow with Dybala and Morata getting forced off with injuries.

Those key losses to an offense that has only racked up 8.9 xG through six matches in the Italian top flight is crushing to say the least. Juventus might be able to mask those absences against a mid- to lower-table Serie A opponent, but that won’t be the case when it faces one of the world’s best defenses.

Defensively, The Old Lady hasn’t been its usual self either. They’ve conceded 6.8 xGA in league play, giving up at least one goal in six of their seven matches overall. The lone clean sheet came in that aforementioned win over Malmö.

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Chelsea Hoping to Rebound From Tough Defeat

To say last Saturday’s defeat at the hands of Manchester City was humbling for the reigning UCL title holder would be an understatement.

The Blues were thoroughly dominated and outclassed from start to finish, generating little to nothing on their attack against the Cityzens’ world-class defense. And it all happened in front of their supporters at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea mustered just 0.3 expected goals, which marked a season low in the advanced metric, while conceding 1.7 xG to Manchester City. The Blues aren’t known for the scoring prowess, but the worst they had done in that offensive category came in a 1-1 draw with Liverpool when they played the entire second half down a man after Reece James was sent off right before intermission.

I fully expect manager Thomas Tuchel to have Chelsea primed for a massive bounce-back effort against an opponent it hasn’t faced since since 2012, when it suffered a 3-0 defeat in Turin. The Blues do have their own fitness issues, though, with James, Mason Mount and American international Christian Pulisic all confirmed to miss the match.

Teammate N’Golo Kante, arguably the most talented player in his position in the world, will also miss out after a positive COVID-19 test that will keep out of the mix until after the international break.

Betting Analysis & Pick

This really comes down to which side is in overall better form ahead of this affair. So, if you read everything I mentioned above, you know where I’m landing in this spot. And to make it even more interesting, we’ll package it all with an angle on the total.

That said, I’m taking a swing on a Single Game Parlay and backing Chelsea to win along with fewer than 3.5 goals scored at +150 odds via DraftKings as my top selection.

The Blues’ defense is just too good for their hosts to break down in my opinion. Throw in the fact La Vecchia Signora will be withough Dybala and Morata, and you have an Italian side that’s going to have serious issues penetrating the Chelsea penalty area for any high-quality chances.

My colleague, BJ Cunningham, has this match pegged at 2.67 goals, so I feel good about this wager. If you’re feeling a bit frisky, you might want to throw in the SGP pairing Chelsea with the total under 2.5 goals at even bigger +320 odds. I’m playing both but have the first option as my featured selection.

Pick: Single Game Parlay — Chelsea ML & Total Under 3.5 Goals (+150)

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