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Champions League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Bayern Munich vs. RB Salzburg Betting Preview (March 8)

Champions League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Bayern Munich vs. RB Salzburg Betting Preview (March 8) article feature image
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Sven Hoppe/picture alliance via Getty Images. Pictured: Kingsley Coman after scoring for Bayern Munich vs. Salzburg

  • RB Salzburg knows how to score on Bayern Munich, but will that be enough to win Tuesday's Champions League clash?
  • Soccer betting analyst Nick Hennion doesn't think so. Find out where he has found value in this Round of 16 match below.

Bayern Munich vs. Salzburg Odds

Bayern Odds -500
Salzburg Odds +1150
Draw +650
Over/Under 3.5 (-135 / -105)
Day | Time Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET
How To Watch Paramount+ | fuboTV
Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

All is left to play for between Bayern Munich and RB Salzburg entering the second leg of their Champions League Round of 16 matchup on Tuesday, with the clubs even at 1-1 on aggregate scoring.

Underdog Salzburg did well to earn a home point against the 2020 UCL winners and now finds itself with a chance to advance as near 10-1 underdogs. However, it will be a steep climb.

Bayern holds the historical edge against Salzburg — it owns a 2-0-1 (W-L-D) record in the last three meetings — and fleeced the Austrian champions, 3-1, in the only meeting to date at the Allianz Arena, albeit an undeserved win.

Positives Amid Frustration for Bayern Munich

The first leg for Bayern Munich was full of frustration and missed opportunities as the perpetual Bundesliga winners dropped points for the first time this Champions League.

Despite drawing 1-1, there were positives for Bayern to take from the first leg. It won the match on expected goals (2.35-0.92) and dominated the ball, achieving north of 70% possession for the match, per fotmob.com.

Additionally, manager Julian Nagelsmann saw his side post 38 touches in the Salzburg penalty area. Exclude the two group fixtures against Dynamo Kyiv, and that figure becomes Bayern’s second-highest total to date in the Champions League, per fbref.com.

A return to Germany should also provide a higher comfort level for Nagelsmann and Co. Bayern dominated all three home group matches on its way to posting the best home expected goal differential in the group stage.

Most of that record can be attributed to Bayern’s attack — it never generated fewer than two expected goals at home — but the current Bundesliga leaders also conceded the second-fewest home expected goals against (xGA) in the opening round.

Expand Bayern’s home fixtures to include its Bundesliga matches, and bettors will find Die Roten has dropped points in only three home fixtures this season. Lastly, Bayern has been on an impressive home run in the Champions League, winning 12 straight fixtures on expected goals and 11-of-12 in reality.

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Scoring Potential High for RB Salzburg

If there’s a definite positive for Salzburg to take into the second leg, it’s that it knows it can score against Bayern Munich.

In the aforementioned three fixtures between these clubs, Bayern never managed to keep Salzburg out of its net. In fact, the last meeting between these sides at the Allianz witnessed Salzburg create north of three expected goals.

There could be some positive offensive regression for Salzburg based on those three head-to-head meetings. In three matches against Bayern, the Austrian Bundesliga winners have scored four goals on 6.1 expected, per fotmob.com.

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But there’s simultaneously cause for concern with Salzburg based on its road performances in the group stage. In those three fixtures, Die Roten Bullen created only 2.2 non-penalty expected goals, including only 1.1 against Lille and Sevilla.

Further, Salzburg never managed a road clean sheet in the group round, all against sides then ranked in the bottom-half of the expected goals for (xGF) tabIe in the UCL group stage.

Finally, although the underlying numbers suggest it wasn’t as bad as indicated, Salzburg has still conceded two xG per 90 minutes to Bayern in the last three meetings and allowed at least 30 shot-creating actions in two of them.

BJ Cunningham’s UCL Projections

Betting Analysis & Pick

Maybe it all seems too easy, but I don’t see how Bayern Munich don’t win this match.

Given its past performances at home in the Champions League and the underlying metrics for the five-time European champions, I expect its attack will step up and dominate a weak Salzburg road defense.

That said, Bayern’s defense does not enter this fixture in the best form, so you should continue to see goals from both sides. The Bavarian club has conceded at least one expected goal in six straight fixtures now and hasn’t kept a deserved clean sheet since the calendar flipped to 2022.

With all of Alphonso Davies, Leon Goretzka and Manuel Neuer unavailable to Nagelsmann, expect more emphasis in attack for Bayern. However, Salzburg’s attack is, as it has proven historically, a bad matchup for Bayern.

I’m encouraged by the fact Brenden Aaronson and Karim Adeyemi led the Austrian side in shot-creating actions in the first leg, proving they can trouble Bayern through the midfield.

For those reasons, you should see Salzburg contribute to the total here, but they just don’t have enough firepower to keep up with a potent Bayern attack.

Pick: Single Game Parlay — Bayern Munich to Win & Total Over 3.5 Goals (+100)

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