Ajax vs. Beşiktaş Betting Odds, Prediction, Preview: Take Underdog in Wednesday Champions League Action

Ajax vs. Beşiktaş Betting Odds, Prediction, Preview: Take Underdog in Wednesday Champions League Action article feature image
Credit:

TUR/BSR Agency/Getty Images. Pictured: Beşiktaş standout Cyle Larin.

  • Ajax is a huge favorite over Beşiktaş in Wednesday UEFA Champions League action (12:45 p.m. ET, Paramout+).
  • The Dutch side has already advanced to the knockout round while Beşiktaş is already eliminated and winless in four UCL matches.
  • Brad Cunningham thinks Beşiktaş can keep this one close and is backing them at +1.5 on Wednesday.

Beşiktaş at Ajax Odds

Beşiktaş Odds +650
Ajax Odds -270
Draw +450
Over/Under 3.5 (+120/ -150)
Day | Time Wednesday | 12:45 p.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Ajax travels to Turkey on Wednesday to face Beşiktaş in Champions League acton, with Group C all but wrapped up for the Dutch powerhouse.

It’s been a dreadful campaign for the Turkish champions, who have zero points and allowed 12 goals through four matches. Ajax earned a dominant 2-0 win in Amsterdam the last time these two sides met. So, based on the odds, the Sons of the Gods is expected to win a rout in this latest meeting.

Ajax has maybe been the most impressive team in the UCL thus far outside of Bayern Munich and Liverpool. The Dutch champions have racked up a whopping 14 goals in their four matches and currently sit with 12 points atop the group table.

This match doesn’t mean much to Ajax, because it would take a miracle scenario for them to lose first place in the quartet. That said, it will be interesting to see how seriously they approach this match.

Struggling Beşiktaş Hoping to Regain Old Form

It’s been a nightmare Champions League and domestic campaign for Beşiktaş this season. The Black Eagles have looked terrible in their last two matches against Sporting Lisbon, losing by a combined score of 8-1 in the process. In the Turkish Super Lig, Beşiktaş has lost five of its last seven matches and currently sit in ninth place in a league they won last season.

The first match against Ajax was a bad performance, but context is important. Beşiktaş was in the middle of an injury crisis when these two played back in September and was missing eight starters. So, losing 2-0 (and covering the spread) was actually pretty heroic for the Black Eagles on the road.

This time around Beşiktaş is pretty much fully healthy and does have some talented players in their squad like Michy Batshuayi, Miralem Pjanic, Rachid Ghezzal and Cyle Larin. Additionally, Beşiktaş is due for some positive regression because they’re averaging 2.01 xG per match and only allowing 1.09 xG per contest domestically this season.

Ajax Obliterating All Foes Standing in Their Way

Ajax is ripping through everyone in Group C, scoring 14 goals and creating 10.9 xG, compared to only allowing two actual goals and 4.3 expected goals.

Their offense has been frightening for opposing defenses since the start of the season, averaging 2.54 xG per game domestically, which is the highest average of anyone in the UCL outside of Bayern Munich.

The Ajax defense has been really good as well, as their opponents in the Eredivisie have created nothing against them, allowing only 7.9 total xG goals in 13 matches.

However, I question how seriously Ajax is going to take this contest. It would take an act of god for them not to finish atop the group and they’re in a dog fight in the Dutch top flight, as they’re currently tied on points with PSV Eindhoven.

So, it wouldn’t shock me if they rested some of their key players for this match and focus on their domestic clash with Sparta Rotterdam this weekend.

Betting Analysis & Pick

It’s really hard for me to make a case for Beşiktaş, given how bad they’ve been in the Champions League. However, they’re due for some positive regression and are finally healthy for the first time in a few months. So, playing at home with nothing to lose against an Ajax side that doesn’t really have anything to play for could potentially create some value on Beşiktaş.

I would advise everyone to wait until match time to bet this games, because as we’ve seen with Ajax they will get steamed. The Sons of the Gods opened at -200 odds and has already surged to -265 as of writing.

That said, I think there’s the potential they will close north of -300 prior to kickoff. So, that creates some value on Beşiktaş +1.5 at -120 odds via DraftKings and I will make it my top selection.

Pick: Beşiktaş +1.5 (-120)

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