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Champions League Odds, Picks, Prediction, Best Bets: Atlético Madrid vs. Manchester City Betting Preview (April 13)

Champions League Odds, Picks, Prediction, Best Bets: Atlético Madrid vs. Manchester City Betting Preview (April 13) article feature image
Credit:

Michael Regan/Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City goaltender Ederson.

  • Manchester City heads to the Spanish capital for Wednesday's Champions League clash with Atlético Madrid.
  • The Cityzens are solid -135 moneyline favorites, but analyst Nick Hennion has found betting value on the game total.
  • Check out below why he's forecasting goals to be at a premium in this contest.

Atlético Madrid vs. Man City Odds

Atlético Madrid Odds +375
Man City Odds -135
Draw +270
Over/Under 2.5 (-110 / -130)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET
How To Watch Paramount+ | fuboTV
Odds updated as of Wednesday afternoon via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

All is to play for at Wanda Metropolitano on Wednesday when Manchester City arrives with a 1-0 aggregate advantage over Atlético Madrid from the first leg of their Champions League quarterfinal-round tie.

Atlético Madrid will be searching for an improvement on its opening performance. The La Liga side failed to generate a single shot in last week?s meeting and has yet to win a home UCL match this campaign.

On the flip side, the Cityzens will be looking to make their second consecutive semifinal appearance after exiting Europe’s top competition at this stage in three consecutive seasons.

Can Atlético Madrid Bounce EPL Giants?

For most sides, Atlético Madrid’s performance in the first leg would qualify as disastrous.

However, it appears as though manager Diego Simeone’s team accomplished its goal of giving itself a chance in the second leg at home. Although Manchester City saw 70 percent of the ball, it created only 0.8 expected goals and generated 22 touches in the Atlético Madrid penalty area. Those are both lows for the reigning Premier League champion in the UCL this season.

Atlético Madrid’s defense also arrives in solid form. It has conceded less than one xG in three consecutive UCL fixtures and just 0.87 xGA per 90 minutes in its last 11 combined La Liga and UCL matches.

Even though Atlético Madrid has yet to win a home UCL game with two draws and two losses, its historical record in home knockout legs is quite remarkable. Across the last 13 of those type of matches played in Madrid, Los Rojiblancos are 9-0-4 (W-L-D) overall.

Plus, positive regression could be on the way for Atlético Madrid based on its four home UCL contests this year. Entering this meeting with City, the reigning La Liga champion holds a -2 home goal differential, but a +0.2 xGDiff, per fbref.com.

Further, Atlético Madrid has won both home contests against English opposition on xG, while taking the big scoring chances battle in those matches by a 6-2 margin, per fotmob.com.

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Man City Hoping to Avoid Shock Elimination

Manchester City bossed proceedings in its pivotal Sunday match against Liverpool, but the fact remains its performance against Atlético Madrid was concerning.

Not since Jan. 15 against Chelsea has manager Pep Guardiola’s side been held to less than one xG in a game. Plus, the 22 penalty area touches City generated in the first leg was its lowest output all season and only the fifth time in 40 combined EPL and UCL outings an opponent club to less than 30 penalty area touches, per fbref.com.

That said, this remains a side that could see some positive offensive regression soon. In its last six combined EPL and UCL outings, it has scored nine goals but on 10.7 xG in the process.

The Cityzens’ defense has also held steady of late, even without defensive talisman Ruben Dias. City has held five of its last six non-Cup opponents to less than one xG and conceded only 0.65 xG/90 minutes in its last 13 games.

Lastly, the Cityzens have experienced great success against Spanish opposition in UCL play. Including its first-leg victory against Atlético Madrid, City has now won four consecutive Champions League contests against La Liga opposition. However, it’s also 1-4-1 (W-L-D) in its last six trips to Spain in the knockout rounds.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Yet again, I find myself questioning the reasonably priced total, as I believe bettors could be in for a low-scoring contest.

Three consecutive UCL games featuring City have seen the total stay under 2.5 combined xG, while four Atlético Madrid matches in a row have finished under the same benchmark in the competition. Furthermore, three of four Atlético Madrid home UCL contests have seen under 2.5 xG overall.

Given the Spanish champions effectively limited the Cityzens to their weakest offensive output to date in the first leg, I’m confident it will continue its defensive success on home soil.

Add in City’s defensive record in the calendar year and I believe you won’t see more than two big chances from the host’s attack that has created less than one xG per 90 minutes in UCL games played at full strength.

I have under 2.5 goals projected at -150, so I’m happy to lay the juice and enjoy another low-scoring affair in the Spanish capital.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-130)

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