Updated Champions League Round of 16 Odds: Liverpool and Bayern Munich a Toss-Up to Advance

Feb 21, 2019 12:23 PM EST
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Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool and Bayern Munich players clashing for a header

  • Odds have changed drastically in the Champions League Round of 16 following first leg match-ups.
  • Liverpool-Bayern Munich is now a toss-up while Manchester City, PSG and Tottenham are all in the driver's seat.

Manchester City-Schalke was the only match with a goal scored in the first half, but it was two late second half goals that stole the show.

Massive underdogs Schalke took a 2-1 lead into halftime and held it until the 85th minute when former Schalke standout Leroy Sane crashed the party and made it 2-2.

Minutes later, Raheem Sterling netted the winner to give them the 3-2 victory and a huge sigh of relief for City backers. They’re now gigantic -10000 favorites to advance ($100 to make $1) with the return leg being played in Manchester.

Round of 16: First Leg Results

Liverpool 0-0 Bayern Munich
Barcelona 0-0 Lyon
Atletico 2-0 Juventus
Schalke 2-3 Man City
Real Madrid 2-1 Ajax
Tottenham 3-0 Dortmund
Roma 2-1 Porto

Despite seven of the eight matches being tied 0-0 at halftime, no game finished with a 1-0 final score. Here’s a look at the updated odds to advance and a brief recap of each match-up.


Barcelona vs. Lyon (Tied 0-0)

Odds to advance:

  • Barcelona -450
  • Lyon +325

Barcelona got plenty of chances in the first leg but couldn’t convert, dropping their odds to advance from -850 to -450. The return leg will take place on Wednesday, March 13th in Barcelona and the hosts are –415 on the moneyline.

A road goal from Lyon would put all the pressure on Barcelona, who would then need to win to advance. A 0-0 final in the second leg would send the match to extra time and/or penalty kicks.

Liverpool vs. Bayern Munich (Tied 0-0)

Odds to advance:

  • Liverpool -110
  • Bayern Munich -110

Neither team could find the back of the net but it wasn’t for a lack of chances. The result wasn’t terrible for either club but Liverpool’s odds to advance slipped from -120 to -110, while Bayern’s adjusted from +100 to -110.

Joshua Kimmich (yellow card accumulation) and Thomas Muller (two-match red card ban) are both suspended for the second leg for Bayern Munich.

Three-way moneylines are tight but Bayern have the edge in Munich at +100 odds. Liverpool are +235 to win and +250 to draw, and public bettors will likely take the Reds in some capacity.

Manchester City vs. Schalke (Man City lead 3-2)

Odds to advance:

  • Man City -10000
  • Schalke +3500

In the craziest opening leg match in the Round of 16, Manchester City vaulted back for a 3-2 victory after surrendering two penalty-kick goals in the first half.

Man City jumped from -2000 to -10000 to advance to the quarterfinals while Schalke slipped from +900 to +3500. The German side will either need to match the 3-2 scoreline or score a multi-goal victory in Manchester on Tuesday, March 12th for a chance to advance. Schalke are currently +1500 on the moneyline to pull off any type of win.

City will be missing defensive-minded Nicolas Otamendi and Fernandinho in the second leg due to yellow card accumulation.

Atletico Madrid vs. Juventus (Atletico lead 2-0)

Odds to advance:

  • Atletico -450
  • Juventus +325

Atletico Madrid put in a fantastic performance against Juventus in the opening leg, winning 2-0 and putting them in the driver’s seat to advance. The one negative for the Spanish side is that Diego Costa will miss the game in Turin due to yellow card accumulation.

Juventus have to win the second leg to have any shot of the quarterfinals, and they’re listed at -145 to do so. I’d imagine they’ll be a popular wager once again after receiving more than 75% of bets in the first leg.

PSG vs. Manchester United (PSG lead 2-0)

Odds to advance:

  • PSG -5000
  • Manchester United +1500

Manchester United dug themselves a deep hole by losing the first leg at home to PSG, 2-0, and they’ll also be without Paul Pogba for the return leg in Paris.

In the current Champions League format dating back to 2003-04, teams that take a 2-0 lead into the second leg at home have advanced 12 out of 12 times.

The second leg will be played on Wednesday, March 6th at Le Parc des Princes in Paris, France, where Manchester United will try to rewrite history as +450 moneyline dogs to win and +1500 odds to advance.

Porto vs. Roma (Roma lead 2-1)

Odds to advance:

  • Roma -180
  • Porto +150

Roma were in firm control of this matchup after taking a 2-0 lead at home in the first leg, but a late Porto goal gave the Portuguese side plenty of hope for the second leg.

There have been 20 instances where the home team won the first leg by a 2-1 scoreline, and they went on to advance just 10 times (50%), which bodes well for Porto in this case.

The return leg will take place on Wednesday, March 6th at the Estádio do Dragão in Porto, Portugal. Porto are listed at +110 to win that match at home, and a clean sheet victory of any kind will see them through to the quarterfinals.

Dortmund vs. Tottenham (Tottenham lead 3-0)

Odds to advance:

  • Tottenham -2000
  • Dortmund +1000

Dortmund may have outplayed Tottenham in the first half of the first leg, but it was a one-sided affair in the second half which culminated in three Spurs goals.

It will take a lot for Dortmund to turn things around, but they’ll be at home and an early goal could shift momentum in their favor.

That match will be played on Tuesday, March 5th at  the Westfalenstadion in Dortmund, Germany, where the hosts are -105 to win and +1000 to advance.

Real Madrid vs. Ajax (Real Madrid lead 2-1)

Odds to advance:

  • Real Madrid -1250
  • Ajax +725

Ajax were in control for most of the opening leg in Amsterdam, but it was Real Madrid coming out on top with a 2-1 victory. Goals just weren’t coming for the home side, but they did manage to grab one in the 75th minute.

Ajax are big +500 underdogs to win at Real Madrid in the second leg, something they’ll have to do to have any chance of advancing. That match is at the Bernabéu in Madrid, Spain on Tuesday, March 5th, and oddsmakers expect Real Madrid to advance at -1250 odds.

Real Madrid will be without defender Sergio Ramos due to yellow card accumulation.

Lastly, here are the updated odds to win the Champions League title:

  • Manchester City have improved to +285 odds to win the Champions League title.
  • Barcelona’s odds have worsened since the Round of 16 match-ups were announced, but they remain the second-favorites at +500.
  • Bayern Munich (+1050) and Atletico Madrid (+1100) made big jumps following their first leg matches.
  • Tottenham’s 3-0 win over Dortmund propelled them from +2800 to +1600 to lift the trophy, a positive change of ~2.5%.
  • Nine teams are listed at +1600 or better, and the other seven teams are listed at +8000 or worse.
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