Chelsea vs Everton Odds, Pick: Back Offenses to Convert Chances

Chelsea

Chelsea is due for more positive attacking regression in the form of finishing variance. They’ve struggled to consistently score goals under Potter, despite clear signs of improved attacking process in the past month.

Since the World Cup break, Chelsea matches have averaged 2.43 xG per 90, but there’s only been 1.6 goals per match. Kai Havertz and Joao Felix are putting up excellent shot numbers, but the finishing variance has cost them a half dozen goals. The posts and crossbar haven’t been Chelsea’s friend, but the goals will come if they keep creating chances.

The Blues have quietly posted at least 1.5 xG in five of their past six matches with the only exception coming on the road at Tottenham in a lackluster display. Chelsea will be without both Mason Mount and Raheem Sterling, but both were in poor form prior to their injuries. The defense, which has allowed at least one expected goal in the past three matches, will also be without Thiago Silva.

Even with the improved process, there still are some cracks defensively. The set piece defense has been an issue for Chelsea all year, as the Blues rank 13th in xG per set piece allowed. Everton is quite proficient on set plays — fifth in xG per set piece — and that could help Dyche’s side get on the board.

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Everton

Since hiring Dyche, Everton have played 630 minutes of Premier League soccer and produced 1.4 expected goals per 90 minutes. That attacking production ranks in the top half of the league, even though the finishing has been terrible and the Toffees have just five goals to show for his tenure. One notable difference from Dyche’s era at Burnley is that Everton isn’t merely sitting deep and protecting the penalty area. Everton has the fourth-worst defense, based on xG allowed, in the Premier League since he was hired.

They've produced at least one expected goal in all but one match since Dyche became the manager. The Toffees have a relatively clean bill of health, even though Dominic Calvert-Lewin is unlikely to contribute more than a potential brief substitute appearance, if he plays at all.

Everton's defense hasn't really improved under Dyche though. They are still due for a ton of regression when you compare their expected goals allowed to actual. Jordan Pickford's shot stopping has bailed out their otherwise porous defense all year and that hasn't changed with the new manager.

The passes per defensive action have gone up considerably. They were as high as 15.1 under Lampard and are down to 12.1 since Dyche became manager. The effort out of possession defensively has improved and the defensive line is actually higher than it was previously.

Chelsea vs Everton Pick

The market has Everton as a very low event team based on this price as the total sits below 2.5 against Chelsea. The numbers suggest this Saturday matchup at Stamford Bridge could be more back and forth. My projections have this game at just over 2.5 goals and I’d bet over 2.5 goals at any plus-money price.

The underlying processes of both these attacks suggest goals are coming for both sides. Chelsea wants to control the game with defensive possession, but Everton is doing a much better job pressing higher up the pitch than a Dyche team traditionally would. This is different than his Burnley team and there should be some goals scored.

Pick: Over 2.5 goals (+100 or Better)