Chelsea vs Newcastle Odds, Predictions, Picks | Premier League Match Preview

Monday, Mar. 11

3 p.m. ET

USA Network

Chelsea Odds	-125
Newcastle United Odds	+275
Draw	+300
Over / Under	3.5 +115 / -135

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Matchweek 28 in the Premier League concludes on Monday as Chelsea hosts Newcastle in a battle of two of the Premier League's biggest underachievers this season. Chelsea will be out for revenge after losing 4-1 to Newcastle in the reverse fixture in November, and this will be the third meeting between the two clubs this season when you include their EFL Cup quarterfinal that went to penalties in December (Chelsea advanced).

The Blues have been a model of inconsistency in the PL this season, as they sit 12th with a +1 goal differential and have played like an average team since the opening 10 matches. The overall aggregate production is similar to last year, but the way they've gotten there is a lot different. Last year, Chelsea had very poor finishing in attack and a quality defense that didn't concede many chances.

Chelsea is producing more going forward when healthy with its first choice attackers, but the defense is allowing almost two expected goals per match since December. When you combine that with Newcastle's major defensive holes in transition and their defensive nosedive for multiple months, there should be goals at Stamford Bridge on Monday Night Football.

Let's dive into my Chelsea vs Newcastle pick and prediction.

Chelsea has consistently excelled in the Premier League when given space to run in transition. Some of their most impressive and dynamic attacking matches came against Manchester City, Tottenham, Aston Villa and other teams who are closer to the top of the table. The kryptonite for Chelsea has been teams who sit deeper, absorb pressure in a low block and can limit high quality shots.

Now facing a Newcastle defense that has been a disaster in transition defense for three months now, the Blues are well positioned to exploit them on Monday. The Blues offense has taken a clear step forward overall, as they’ve produced at least 1.5 expected goals in nine of 10 league matches. They’ve been healthy enough to start mostly the same consistent attack week in and week out. Meanwhile, Newcastle still has major deficiencies defending set pieces (third-worst in xGA per set piece allowed), an area where the Chelsea attack has been consistently good all year.  

The Blues have only held two of their last 10 opponents under one expected goal allowed in the match. One was Fulham, who picked up a red card in that match and was largely unable to threaten. The second was Crystal Palace, who played without their two best attackers in Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise and still managed to score a long range effort in the first half.

Newcastle is at its best in attack when given space to cross, and space to play on the break in transition. The attack doesn't generate elite shot volume, but Newcastle gets a lot of crosses (7th) and a high xG per shot (5th). Given Chelsea is bottom three in ball stopping in transition, the midfield still hasn't quite fit right together, Newcastle will threaten consistently.

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The Magpies had a reprieve last week because they played Wolves at home in a match where Wolves didn’t have their best central midfielder and two best strikers. The Newcastle and Chelsea defense are both conceding almost two expected goals per 90 in the last two months. Newcastle has allowed the highest xG per shot in the league since December began. 

As the midfield has dealt with injuries and fatigue, the pressing and physical nature of Eddie Howe's Newcastle has struggled to keep up. The fixture congestion was especially an issue for Howe's side, but it hasn't improved even after the Magpies were knocked out of Europe in December.

The lack of pace defending in wide areas has been the largest issue for them. Joelinton, Bruno Guimaraes and others previously did a ton of midfield ball winning, and Newcastle was so passive in possession to protect the backline from getting exposed. When playing at home especially, the Magpies made it work and papered over the cracks.

When they've gone away from St. James' Park, the defense has completely collapsed. They've conceded less than one xG at home, and allowed 29 goals and 29 xGA in 13 away league matches. Only Luton Town is worse defensively.

Goals and betting totals are up across the Premier League this season, and Newcastle and Chelsea are two of the biggest year over year changes in defensive quality.

Neither team has effectively slowed down opponents all year, and if you remove some priors, I could project this total north of 3.5 as is.

Even if you bake in some regression, the total is a bit low. My projections have this match landing right near 3.5 goals exactly, and I’d bet over 3.5 goals at +110 or better.

Given the stylistic matchup, even a slow start wouldn't doom this match to the under. There have been plenty of late goals flying for and against both clubs this year.

Pick: Over 3.5 Goals (+115)