Denmark vs China Odds, Prediction, Picks | Women’s World Cup Preview

Denmark vs China Odds, Prediction, Picks | Women’s World Cup Preview article feature image

DeFodi Images/Getty. Pictured: Mille Gejl.

Denmark vs China Odds

Saturday, July 22
5:30 a.m. ET
Denmark Odds-120
China Odds+333
Over/Under2.5 (+115 / -145)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(+100 / -130)
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here.

Unders and underdogs have ruled at the World Cup through the opening five matches. All five matches have gone under the closing total and underdogs have covered the spread in four of the five games, with Switzerland's 2-0 win against the Philippines the lone exception. Saturday's match between Denmark and China is the most even matchup of the World Cup thus far, with the two sides expect to be competing for second in their group behind heavy group favorite England.

It's the first game where the favorite closed as just as a -0.5 spread favorite, and this game could well decide who finishes behind the Lionesses and advances to the knockout stage. China showed why they deserve a spot in this World Cup when they beat both South Korea and Japan to win the Asian Cup – two teams with more history in the women's game. Denmark won every single game in World Cup Qualifying but faced a very friendly qualifying group to get here.

Let's dive into Denmark vs China at the Women's World Cup.

Denmark Maintain Key Edges

Denmark outscored their opponents 43-2 in World Cup Qualifying, but the group was the weakest of all in qualifying and featured no other teams that made it to this World Cup. Denmark failed to qualify for the last World Cup, and manager Lars Søndergaard is coaching the Danes for the final time at this one.

They failed to get out of the group stage at the Euros last summer after being drawn into a tough group with Spain, Finland and Germany. The Danes beat Finland, but lost in a blowout to Germany and lost close to Spain and finished third in the group. The Danes are bolstered by the return of their best player, Pernille Harder, from injury. Harder has scored 70 career goals for Denmark in the past and she had an excellent season in the Women's Super League as a chance creator at Chelsea last year.

Now headed to Bayern Munich, Harder joins a handful of other players that play on top teams across Europe and in the NWSL. Denmark and China are both teams that are comfortable in possession, but Denmark have their advantage in playing without the ball and pressing defensively. The Danes' back line is well equipped to play the ball through the pressure and the ball carrying ability of the Danish defenders could be the key separator between these two opponents.

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China Hold Polarizing Results

Your opinion of the true talent of the Chinese National Team is mostly dependent upon what you make of their run through the Asian Cup last year. Wins against South Korea and Japan have to count for something, but the performances in friendlies otherwise underwhelmed.

In the lead up to the World Cup, China lost 4-0 to Sweden, drew both Ireland and Switzerland 0-0, and then lost 3-0 to Spain before beating Russia 2-1 on July 4th. The form isn't great when you consider that all of those other teams are comparable to or higher than China in the Elo ratings (excluding Russia). Those matches are only friendlies though, compared to the more highly competitive Asian Cup matches.

China made a real effort to sign top talent and improve its domestic league, but the COVID-19 pandemic really hurt the league's growth. All but three of China's players play domestically in China and they are a possession-first side that's struggled to play without the ball in friendlies this season.

The attack will run through Wang Shuang, a striker who plays in the NWSL for Racing Club Louisville. She and Wang Shanshan will combine up top to create most of the chances in attack. China have some real attacking talent, but there's more questions about their defense when compared to Denmark.

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Denmark vs China Pick

Denmark opened as high as -240 on the three-way moneyline and the market has moved heavily toward China since. The Danes were even -170 on Wednesday night and a lot of money has come in backing China down to the current Denmark -120 price. The women's Elo ratings don't show much difference between these two teams in true quality. The market is certainly reacting to the lower goal scoring environment shown at the World Cup thus far, which would work to the benefit of the underdog in general.

China's defensive weakness without the ball could get exposed by the Danes, who are better pressing out of possession and have a tactical advantage as a result. Denmark are also better in wide areas when compared to the narrow 4-4-2 approach China use tactically.

There's no notable injury news to move the line either, with all of Denmark's top players expected to start.

I'm buying back on Denmark after the market movement. I wouldn't lay more than -125 on the moneyline but would bet Denmark to win this at any better price.

The Pick: Denmark ML (-125 or better)

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