Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen: DFB-Pokal German Cup Final Odds, Picks & Predictions (Saturday, July 4)

Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen Odds & Pick

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Bayern Munich can wrap up another domestic double, as well as keep their hopes for a treble alive, with a win over Bayer Leverkusen in the DFB-Pokal German Cup Final on Saturday afternoon.

Munich — fresh off their eighth Bundesliga title on the bounce — led the division in goals for, goals conceded, expected goals for (xGF) and expected goals against (xGA). It was more ho-hum domination by Die Roten.

Bayer Leverkusen will be disappointed to miss out on Champions League Football in 2020-21, but Die Werkself put together a strong Bundesliga campaign. Leverkusen finished fifth overall with 63 points and boasted a +22.2 xG differential.

Bayer Leverkusen are a good team. Bayern Munich are a dominant one. But, as the saying goes, anything can happen in cup football.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Stats from 2019-20 Bundesliga season.

Bayern Munich came out of the gates flying after the restart, winning all nine of their matches and outscoring their opponents, 27-6, in the process.

Die Roten's +12.79 expected goal differential during that span wasn't as impressive, but Munich are such a talented team that they will almost always outscore their underlying metrics.

It's very hard to poke holes in Bayern Munich.

Bayer Leverkusen tallied five wins, three losses and a draw after the restart, but three of their five victories came in their first three matches. With a berth in the 2020-21 Champions League at stake, Leverkusen could only muster seven points in their last five matches. That run of form included a 4-2 loss to Bayern Munich and a bad loss to Hertha Berlin. At their best, Leverkusen could make a game of it on Saturday, but their inconsistent finish to the season gives me pause.

Not many teams will match up well with Bayern Munich, but Leverkusen play a high-risk, high-reward style of soccer that should play right into Munich's hands.

There's plenty of reasons to believe this match will feature goals, so it's not surprising that the odds on both teams to score prop currently sits at -180 (64.2% implied probability), even though Munich boast one of Europe's best defensive records. Leverkusen are a score-first, think-later type of team and they have a legitimate talisman in Kai Havertz up top, so they should have chances to get on the board on Saturday.

Over the course of the season, Leverkusen's defense held up, but they struggled down the stretch and were overrun by Bayern in their showdown a month ago.

I think this game sets up for Bayern to find the back of the net with relative ease, so I'll back them to score Over 2.5 goals (-121) and perhaps give a thought to Munich -2.5 at +200.