England vs Denmark Odds, Pick | Women’s World Cup Preview

England vs Denmark Odds, Pick | Women’s World Cup Preview article feature image

Zhizhao Wu/Getty. Pictured: Pernille Harder.

England vs Denmark Odds

Friday, July 28
4:30 a.m. ET
England Odds-250
Denmark Odds+900
Over/Under2.5 (+115 / -150)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(+150 / -200)
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here.

Both England and Denmark head into Friday's match with three points already in the bag. A win in this one would all but  guarantee either side a spot in the round of 16, and even a draw would put both European nations in the driver's seat to advance.

There haven't been many meetings between England and Denmark over the years, and this will be their first meeting since 2019. The Lionesses won that friendly 2-0, and haven't lost to the Scandinavians since 2005.

The past and the present appear to be on England's side. As one of the favorites to win the 2023 World Cup, the Lionesses are the clear bookmaker's favorite to take care of business at -250. With the 13th-ranked Denmark way out at +900 to win, the Northern Europeans are a good value pick for an upset.

England Need Better Than Previous Outing

An unconvincing 1-0 win over Haiti in England's opening match has heaped pressure on the reigning European champions to show a much more inspiring performance in this one. The Lionesses had plenty of the ball but were rusty in front of goal. England have the second most shots on target (11) of any nation at the tournament.

Head coach Sarina Wiegman is known for developing a preferred starting XI and then sticking to it throughout the tournament. But, it already feels like there could be some personnel tweaks heading into the match.

Those changes could start with center forward Alessia Russo.

The Arsenal forward fired off five attempts on goal against Haiti, more than any other player has managed at the 2023 World Cup. However, none of them felt like particularly venomous efforts. An xG of 0.8 isn't bad in isolation, but it showed that she was delivering quantity over quality when it came to chances.

Rachel Daly, who led the English Women's league in goals last season with 22, would be the likely replacement if Wiegman decides to twist. The Aston Villa forward is great in the air and is known for her high-pressing and relentless energy.

Denmark Reliant on Strict Tactics

Last Saturday, the Danes snuck past China 1-0 thanks to an 89th-minute headed goal from Amalie Vangsgaard from a Pernille Harder corner kick. The match is a good blueprint of the type of defensive error-free soccer they want to play at this tournament.

Aerial attacks are a key part of Denmark's game plan. Five of their 15 shots against China came from headers. That includes Vangsgaard's winning goal and Denmark's only other on target attempt by Rikke Madsen. Aerial attempts also made up 0.74 of Denmark's 1.1 xG.

Expect the Scandinavians to play a mid-to-low block and soak up pressure. They are unlikely to try and compete with England for the ball. Instead, the Danes will look to break quick and play long balls to Harder. The Bayern Munich forward can do it all, and she will need to beat players in one-on-one situations on the counterattack. Her delivery from set pieces could be the difference as well.

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England vs Denmark Pick

This feels like it is going to be a low scoring affair. Neither team has yet scored a goal from open play. And while England's finishing looked rusty, Denmark's desire to get numbers forward exemplified their cautious approach.

I see a 1-0 game to either side, or perhaps even a 0-0 or 1-1 draw.

There's also value to be had in the Danish goalscorer props, particularly with Harder.

The Picks: Under 2.5 (-154) | Pernille Harder to score (+550) | Draw (+320)

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