Everton vs. Liverpool EPL Betting Preview: Updated Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction
Tony McArdle/Everton FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Demarai Gray
Everton vs. Liverpool Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-175 / +125)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV|
|Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
After a slow start, Liverpool looks to make it three wins in a row Saturday when it crosses Stanley Park for the latest Merseyside Derby against Everton in Premier League action.
Eight points from their first five matches is far from the ideal start for a team with title aspirations. However, there will be renewed belief for the Reds after last Wednesday’s dramatic 2-1 win over Newcastle United via Fabio Carvalho’s last-gasp winner.
Everton, which is still winless in league play, has yet to score more than a goal in a game this campaign. However, the Toffees have drawn their last three via 1-1 score lines. And the last two fixtures were tricky away contests at Brentford and Leeds United.
Liverpool swept last season two-game series, including a dominant 4-1 win at Goodison Park that went a long way toward sealing former manager Rafa Benitez’s exit from Everton.
After the trauma of last campaign’s relegation scare, it’s understandable that\ Everton supporters are nervous about this year’s winless start.
Yet, there’s also reason for hope given the first five results have all come without a serviceable option at striker.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin remains out, but former Brighton & Hove Albion man Neal Maupay could make his debut up top. He would’ve factored in last Tuesday’s 1-1 draw at Leeds, but manager Frank Lampard said the Premier League hadn’t registered his paperwork in time.
Everton has held on to Anthony Gordon despite reports of a strong bid from Chelsea. That’s also good news, considering the winger has two of the Toffees’ four league goals. Demarai Gray has the third, plus the fourth was an own goal credited to former Everton fullback Lucas Digne.
By The Numbers
- -2.2 — Difference between Everton’s goals scored and xG recorded.
- -2.8 — Difference between Everton’s goals allowed and xG conceded.
Five games is still a small sample, but there’s enough now to question whether Liverpool is more impacted by the exit of Sadio Mané than it would’ve hoped.
Yes, the Reds are third in the EPL with a +4.4 xGDiff overall. However, two thirds of that difference came from their 9-0 romp over promoted side Bournemouth, which spent the least in the transfer window of any side that jumped into the Premier League.
The rest of their matches have been close contests, in which they haven’t been as successful in pressing opponents as in previous seasons. Mané was a big part of the press in the past as the point man of the 4-3-3 formation preferred by manager Jürgen Klopp.
Adding to the degree of difficulty, Liverpool is playing a derby less than 72 hours after expending a lot of energy coming from behind against Newcastle. And the Reds might have one eye toward the start of Champions League play next Wednesday, when it hits the road to face Serie A side Napoli.
By The Numbers
- +0.9 — The xGDiff per 90 minutes for Liverpool in Premier League games.
- +0.4 — The xGDiff/90 minutes in EPL affairs excluding the Bournemouth tilt.
Betting Analysis & Pick
This feels like a line based on sentiment rather the evidence presented this season. The public still considers Liverpool a title contenders and Everton a relegation candidate, but I’m not sold either beliefs are true.
I’m not saying the Reds don’t get right, but they haven’t shown a title-winning level of play so far. And the Toffees are much improved in the back, with a lot of their problems solvable by adequate forward production.
Liverpool should be the clear favorite, but the value is on the home side. The Reds have played only one game decided by multiple goals. Everton haven’t played any this season.
And that’s the trend I’m backing since I’m taking Everton getting +1.5 goals on the spread line via the Asian Handicap at -140 odds and an implied 58.3% probability as my top pick.
The Pick: Everton +1.5 (-140)