Everton vs Man City Odds, Pick: Multiple Ways to Bet This Fixture

Everton

Everton has been worse defensively under Sean Dyche, but the attack is clearly trending upward. They’re forcing more high turnovers, lowered their passes per defensive action and can score against City on Sunday. Everton has become more aggressive in its out-of-possession defense and while it's certainly cost them in some matches, it's been a necessary trade off to get anything from the attacking players.

Since February began, Everton is eighth in xG per 90, behind only the top-five teams in the league table, plus Brighton and Leicester. The Toffees are also aided by the return of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who has produced 0.52 xG + xA per 90 in limited minutes this season.

Dyche's tactics were on full display in the upset wins against both Brighton and Arsenal. Those two teams love slow build-up play through the center before eventually springing a winger into space to progress the ball into the penalty area for cut backs. Everton struggles to defend its penalty area, but chooses to try to disrupt opposition build up. Everton conceded more than 2.8 xT and three expected goals — the product of leading for all 90+ minutes of the match — but generated five big scoring chances in transitions and turned Brighton over six times in its own half.

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Man City

Pep Guardiola said after Manchester City’s victory against Leeds United that he had to rotate because multiple players claimed they were tired and needed a rest. Guardiola then played his best XI a full 90 minutes in a grueling contest at Real Madrid in the Champions League on Tuesday. And he’s going to need all of those players again for the second leg on Wednesday at home.

I’d expect rotation from Manchester City once again. The Cityzens have a ton of depth, but the potential rotation of Kevin De Bruyne and Jack Grealish hurts the ball progression and ability to pounce on an aggressive Everton defense.

Some defensive rotation could also lead to some cracks and we’ve seen City switch off time and time again defensively when playing with leads in the second half. It's hard to project exactly what the City lineup may look like a day before the game, but any minutes Guardiola chooses to play without Grealish, De Bruyne and Erling Haaland would downgrade their offensive output enough to bet Everton +1.5 at home.

Given that the Cityzens are competing on three fronts and many of their players played at the World Cup, you have to wonder if the fatigue of the long year could be setting in a bit as the season nears its end.

Everton vs Man City Pick

One potential hidden edge for Everton in this match is goalie shot stopping. Ederson has been very mediocre in goal for the Cityzens, while Pickford ranks third in the league in post-shot xG difference saved. 

Many would expect this to regress toward the mean in the long run, but Pickford has saved Everton roughly five goals over the course of the season, while Ederson is at -5.1 goals and sixth worst in the Premier League. Shot stopping is quite noisy in small samples, but that could be a potential hidden edge for Everton.

Manchester City will probably win, but the rotated Cityzens are more vulnerable and overvalued in the market. I’m splitting my best bet on the +1.5 and the Everton team total over. 

Pick: Everton +1.5 (-125), Everton team total over 0.5 (-125)