Everton (10-10-7) and Newcastle United (10-11-6) will face off today at 10:00 a.m. EST at St. James Park in Newcastle upon Tyne, England.
Newcastle is favored at a -135 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-138o / +110u) goals.
Let's get into my Everton vs. Newcastle prediction.
Everton vs. Newcastle Prediction
Pick: Under 2.75 Goals
My Everton vs. Newcastle best bet is on the match to finish with under 2.75 total goals.
Everton vs. Newcastle Odds
| Everton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +105 | 2.5 -138o / +110u | +345 |
| Newcastle Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -145 | 2.5 -138o / +110u | -135 |
Everton vs. Newcastle Picks, Parlay
Pick: Under 2.75 Goals
Under manager David Moyes, Everton consistently relies on defensive stability, especially in road games. This strategy has proven effective, and the data strongly supports a low-scoring game against Newcastle. This season, only one of Everton's Premier League away games has finished with more than 2.75 goals. The team’s matches feature a league-low average of just 2.22 goals per game. Their defense is exceptionally organized away from home, as Everton has not conceded more than twice in any road fixture all season.
While Newcastle’s offense is formidable at St. James' Park—where they have scored over 1.5 goals in 10 of 13 home matches—they have rarely produced an offensive explosion, managing three or more goals just once. This offensive consistency faces a stern test against Everton’s disciplined defensive block.
Furthermore, Everton’s offensive struggles on the road contribute to the logic behind this pick. The Toffees have failed to score in nine of their 13 away contests, a statistic that suggests they will prioritize keeping a clean sheet over aggressive offensive tactics. This combination of a solid but not explosive home offense against a defense-first road team makes the under an attractive play.
Everton vs. Newcastle Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Everton | Draw | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| 24.1% | 23.7% | 52.2% |
Projected Total Goals
| Everton | Total Goals | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| 1.04 | 2.71 | 1.67 |
Everton vs. Newcastle Betting Analysis
This Premier League clash holds significant weight for both clubs, with only one point separating them in the standings as they chase potential European qualification. For Newcastle, this is a critical home fixture they must win to keep pace with their rivals. The Magpies average 1.85 goals per league match at St. James’ Park and should create opportunities against an Everton defense that concedes an average of 15.85 shots per road game.
However, Everton's game plan is no secret. They will aim to frustrate Newcastle, sit in a low defensive block, and absorb pressure before looking for counterattacking chances. Their road matches have seen the second-fewest goals in the league, with an average of just 1.92 per game, a testament to their tactical approach. Everton’s sixth-best away record in the league is built on this foundation of defensive solidity.
A look at the head-to-head history reveals a mixed bag. While Newcastle secured a dominant 4-1 victory in the reverse fixture this season, the five previous encounters were much tighter, with an average of just 2.2 goals per game. Expect Everton to revert to the defensive style that has made them so successful on their travels, which makes another 4-1 result highly unlikely. Newcastle should possess the quality to secure a result, but it will likely be a hard-fought battle rather than an open, high-scoring contest.
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