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FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles Galaxy MLS Odds, Picks, Prediction, Preview: Back Offenses To Thrive (July 24)

FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles Galaxy MLS Odds, Picks, Prediction, Preview: Back Offenses To Thrive (July 24) article feature image

Shaun Clark/Getty Images. Pictured: Ricardo Pepi.

  • FC Dallas host the Los Angeles Galaxy on Saturday with the home side looking to end a three-match losing streak.
  • The Galaxy, meanwhile, will be without Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez as they attempt to find ways to score in his absence.
  • Ian Quillen breaks down the match below and explains where he finds betting value in this meeting.

Dallas vs. LA Galaxy Odds

Dallas Odds+110
LA Galaxy Odds+235
Over/Under2.5 (-155 / +125)
Day | TimeSaturday | 8:30 p.m. ET
How To WatchESPN+
Odds updated Friday night via DraftKings.

It just might be a must-win for FC Dallas when they host the LA Galaxy, who will be playing a fifth consecutive match without Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez.

Dallas has lost three in a row to continue their unexpected stay at the bottom of the Western Conference standings.

They’ve now occupied that 13th spot for nearly half the season off and on, and they  haven’t been higher than 11th since the second week of May.

Meanwhile, Chicharito has been out with a calf issue long enough to lose his grip on the top spot in the MLS goal-scoring race to Seattle’s Raul Ruidiaz.

Without the 10-goal scorer, the Galaxy have earned four points from 12 possible, with their lone win coming over Dallas back in California.

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Road Woes Continue for Dallas

Manager Luchi Gonzalez’s squad is unbeaten at home — albeit with five draws — but no team in MLS is nearly as bad as Dallas has been on the road.

It’s literally impossible to be worse; Dallas has yet to earn a single point away from Toyota Stadium.

That continued in a recent three-game swing, with losses at the Chicharito-less Galaxy, the Portland Timbers and Colorado Rapids.

Perhaps most frustrating for Gonzalez is those defeats came despite a markedly improved quality of performances.

Dallas slightly led its opponents in expected goals (xG) over that trip, 2.33 to 2.29, according to American Soccer Analysis. Most of its earlier away matches were much less competitive in terms of chance creation.

But that’s a natural end result when your Designated Player signing at striker is struggling and your top two centerbacks are out.

The 33-year-old Argentine veteran Franco Jara has found the net only twice, while losing his starting place to 18-year-old Ricardo Pepi.

Matt Hedges (hip) and Jose Martinez (thigh) have combined to start only 13 matches, with neither cleared to feature Saturday.

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Raveloson Has Thrived for Los Angeles

Chicharito isn’t the only key piece missing from the Galaxy, with six players in total still on international duty at the CONCACAF Gold Cup.

That includes United States midfielder Sebastian Lletget, and Mexico midfielders Jonathan dos Santos and Efrain Alvarez, all of whom are regular starters.

But the Galaxy have been able to get centerback Derrick Williams back into the starting lineup in their last two matches. He served a six-game suspension for a tackle that ended Portland Timbers midfielder Andy Polo’s season.

Of all those afforded opportunities due to Galaxy absences, none have taken more advantage than Malagasy centerback and defensive midfielder Rayan Raveloson.

He’s debuted in MLS with four consecutive starts, scoring three goals to quickly move to second on the team scoring start behind Chicharito.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Chicharito’s absence puts a lot of skepticism on the Galaxy’s offensive potential, but it’s the defense that has appeared to suffer more from LA’s call-ups.

The Galaxy have conceded in six consecutive matches overall and seven times in their last four games.

That mild slump makes sense when you understand LA is built around defending — in part — by keeping the ball. That’s a lot harder to do when three of your starting four in the midfield are absent.

Dallas’ defensive issues are also somewhat obscured by Jara’s poor form. Their concession of a goal in six consecutive home matches is a major reason why they only have 11 points at home, even while going unbeaten.

More directly, both teams have scored in five of the Galaxy’s seven matches away, and six of Dallas’ seven matches at home.

The three combined times it didn’t happen? Los Angeles were shut out by the MLS’ best defense in Seattle and while playing with 10 men in Portland. Dallas and Colorado played to a 0-0 draw on opening weekend.

It’s a small sample, but it’s a trend that has occurred almost 79% of the time this year, well above the 63% implied probability of betting both teams to score at -170 odds.

Betting over the total might also be a good play, but I feel more comfortable betting yes on both teams to score, as low as maybe -225.

Pick: Yes — Both Teams to Score (-170)

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