Feyenoord vs Atletico Madrid Prediction | Champions League Previews

Tuesday, Nov. 28

3 p.m. ET

Paramount+

Feyenoord Odds	+150
Atletico Madrid Odds	+170
Draw	+250
Over / Under	2.5 -125 / +100

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

First and third place in Group E of the Champions League are separated by just two points as Atletico Madrid travels to face Feyenoord on Tuesday. A Feyenoord win would likely leave Atletico Madrid in third entering the final Matchweek, while a Feyenoord win at home — where they've dominated Celtic and Lazio — could move them into first place in a highly competitive group.

These sides met in Madrid in Matchweek 2 and Atletico held on for a thrilling 3-2 victory, despite a vastly different underlying box score. Feyenoord had the majority of the shots and chances and territorial control in the match, even though they played without their top striker and best player, Santiago Gimenez.

Gimenez is back and Feyenoord is as healthy as it's been at any point in this Champions League.

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Based on the expected goal differential through four matches, the Dutch side has been the best of the four in this group. They have a +3 xGD, a +2 actual goal differential and completely dominated both Celtic and Lazio when playing at home. The most impressive performance of their group stage didn't come at home though, but in the reverse fixture in Madrid. They closed +0.75 in that match, so there has been some boost to Feyenoord's market power rating since then. However, the underlying box score suggested Atleti was fortunate to get a result at all.

Feyenoord had 31 attacking penalty area touches and 17 total shots, compared to just 11 touches and seven shots for Atleti. Diego Simeone's side put three total shots on target and scored on all three of those shots. Backup keeper Timon Wellenreuther started that game for Feyenoord and the Dutch side has benefitted from the return of starter Justin Bijlow, a considerable upgrade, since.

Feyenoord has its first choice midfield, defense and Gimenez available for the first time in the Champions League group stage, and this is an all-in spot for them at home. They've been perennially undervalued for a year in Europe under Arne Slot and haven't lost a home match in his tenure.

The last home loss for Feyenoord came in Dec. 2020, before the Slot era. Since then, they've made the Europa Conference League Final, the Europa League Final and been the best team in this CL group.

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Atletico Madrid's defense has been the best in La Liga this season, which is a big change from the last calendar year under Simeone. Their underlying stats in the Champions League group are a bit inflated because of the early red card to Celtic in the last match, but they've actually been the best team in La Liga by expected goal differential thus far.

In fact, only one team has produced at least 1.5 xG against Atletico all season (18 matches in all competitions): Feyenoord in the reverse fixture. That includes games against Real Madrid, Lazio and more than half of La Liga. They've played a weaker than average schedule and will face Barca, Bilbao and Girona in the next month, but there's been real defensive improvement.

It's a classic Simeone defense when you look at the underlying profile. They rank 19th out of 20 in passes per defensive action, which should mean Feyenoord will control the majority of the possession in this match. The question is whether this high-quality box defending is sustainable against the firepower of Gimenez and Feyenoord.

Atletico's defense isn't elite at keeping teams out of their penalty area or even stopping shots in general. They rank 10th in passes allowed into the box, fifth in attacking penalty area touches and fifth in shots allowed per match. They've been elite at preventing big scoring chances, but I'm a bit skeptical that this group can stay this elite defensively.

There's some regression coming for Atletico's defense, which doesn't look nearly as elite on paper as the goals allowed and xGA suggest. Feyenoord faced little midfield resistance in the last meeting and should get plenty of chances in the penalty area again. Jan Oblak had his best game of the season in the reverse fixture, but he's actually been a below average shot stopper this year.

Feyenoord is the marginally worse team overall, but once factoring in home-field advantage, I'd bet Feyenoord draw no bet.

Pick: Feyenoord Draw No Bet (-110 or better)