France vs Brazil Odds & Pick | World Cup Betting Analysis
Maddie Meyer/Getty. Pictured: Sakina Karchaoui.
France vs Brazil Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+125 / -163)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-110 / -115)|
|Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here.|
One of the most highly anticipated matches of the group stage kicks off on Saturday as the top two teams in Group E battle for group supremacy. Brazil have the advantage in the table after France dropped points in their opener against Jamaica, and the market has moved accordingly toward Brazil after their dominant 4-0 victory against Panama in the first match.
France were unfortunate in the end to not grab a result given the quality of chances created in total, but Hervé Renard's side struggled to use its talent advantage in a sluggish opening 45 minutes. Brazil really only need a draw to remain in the driver's seat of the group, which will have a massive impact on the difficulty for both teams to make a deep run in the tournament. Second in the group is on a collision course with Germany, while the winner of the group will be a strong favorite to make the semifinal.
Here is my pick for France vs Brazil in the Women's World Cup.
France Have the Analytics on Their Side
France's performance in the final third and penalty area underwhelmed, but the ball progression and other underlying numbers suggested that France's first match was really a tale of two halves. They finished the game with 2.16 xG in total and just 0.42 came in the opening 45 minutes. The second half saw France camped in the Jamaican half, dangerous on set pieces and easily able to get into the penalty area.
Les Bleues finished the match with 14 passes into the penalty area, five crosses into the box and three carries. Eugenie Le Sommer wasn't at her best when it came to getting on the end of shots, but her link up play and shot creation for Kadidatou Diani led to five shots and Diani's 0.9 xG.
Le Sommer needs to get better shots going forward for France to reach the next level and truly compete for the World Cup title, but it's encouraging that France found an extra gear in the second half given how poor the first half was.
Jamaica only managed one shot with an xG rating over 0.04 and the conservative and solid defensive approach from Renard should give them a very high floor against teams of their caliber.
Brazil Impressive But Untested
Outside of maybe Spain, no attack looked more dominant than Brazil in the first match of the World Cup. They had 17 passes into the penalty area, eight crosses and seven carries into the box. Panama also only managed four box entries in total and had six very low quality shots to go with just five penalty area touches.
Only Spain and Germany had a higher pass completion rate than the Brazilians in the first match, and only four teams allowed a lower pass completion rate. France's press is a lot more effective than Brazil's, however, and France actually allowed a lower pass completion rate than every team in the World Cup in their first match.
It's important to note that despite the one dominant performance against Panama, Brazil hadn't been great prior. They lost to Canada twice out of three matches in the last calendar year and dropped a friendly with the Americans that was largely uncompetitive for 75 minutes. USA won it 2-1 after a Brazil goal in stoppage time.
We can't overreact and throw out our priors on these two teams because one looked better in its first match. Panama are ranked lower than Jamaica, and France are second in the Elo ratings compared to Brazil's eighth.
France vs Brazil Pick
France entered this tournament with much better outright odds than Brazil. The French were also -200 to win this group headed into the Jamaica match and were a +120 moneyline favorite in this match before Brazil took huge money in their last match. You have to upgrade Brazil for how dominant they looked against Panama, but the market has gone too far in this case to make Brazil a neutral site favorite.
Brazil might have the higher offensive ceiling with their total attacking depth, but France have a real edge on set pieces and defensive solidity.
I'm still interested in France to win this entire tournament and think one bad half shouldn't change that view. Diani and Le Sommer can challenge this Brazilian defense that had been pretty inconsistent in matches leading into the World Cup.
The Pick: France – Draw No Bet (-115 or better)