Fulham vs Arsenal Odds, Prediction | Premier League Match Preview
Matthew Ashton/Getty. Pictured: Martin Odegaard.
Fulham vs Arsenal Odds
| Fulham Odds | +425 |
| Arsenal Odds | -182 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -134 / +105 |
Fulham and Arsenal both look to respond from tough defeats when they meet on New Year's Eve at Craven Cottage.
Fulham have lost two in a row overall without finding the net, most recently succumbing to suddenly surging Bournemouth 3-0 at home on Tuesday.
Then on Thursday, Arsenal suffered their first league home defeat 2-0 against West Ham to miss a chance to go back above Liverpool into the top spot in the league table.
Arsenal have won eight of the last 10 played between these sides, including their last five as visitors, with all of those meetings coming in the league. But these sides drew 2-2 at the Emirates in their first meeting of this season back in late August.
Here is my Fulham vs Arsenal prediction.
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Fulham
Fulham's attack has been the definition of feast or famine over the past month.
At one stretch, Marco Silva's men had scored 16 goals across four league matches beginning on the final weekend of November. Since then, they've been outscored 8-0 in three league losses while generating only 1.9 expected goals (or xG) in 270 minutes.
But one thing that has been generally consistent for the Cottagers is they need possession to generate chances. In the six league games where Silva's side has had 60% of the ball or more, Fulham have created 12.2 xG — or 2.0 per 90 minutes — and 17 goals. In the 13 other matches, they've scored only nine times and generated 9.4 xG.
That said, even if Fulham don't have much of the ball — as would be expected against Arsenal — the return of Raul Jimenez should provide at least a bit more of a legitimate threat on the counter. Jimenez is tied for the club lead with Willian with four league goals but missed the last three games due to a red card suspension.
Arsenal
It was Arsenal who couldn't turn their dominance in possession into goals in their second loss of the season to the Hammers in a game that had a very similar complexion to their earlier League Cup defeat to another London rival.
The final xG count was 2.7 to 1.4 in favor of the Gunners, and even that total flattered West Ham, with more than half of their xG value accounted for in a very late penalty ultimately saved by David Raya.
It was the fifth such game in which Arsenal has had 70% or more of the ball, and they've emerged victorious only once. But some of that correlation is due to game states, with Arsenal commanding all that possession exactly because they're still searching for a crucial goal to tie or take the lead.
The Gunners will play on two days fewer rest than Sunday's opponents, but they've performed fairly well in such circumstances. Their record is 7-2-1 (W-L-D) in all competitions on three days of rest, and 3-1-0 when the gap is less than 72 hours between kickoffs.
Manager Mikel Arteta will welcome Kai Havertz back from a one-game suspension. The West Ham defeat was the first league game the midfielder has missed entirely, and with four goals scored he's one of seven Arsenal players with three or more in the league.
Fulham vs Arsenal
Prediction
The likelihood of a much better Fulham performance than what they put out on Tuesday makes betting against the Cottagers feel unpleasant here. But given their struggles against the top half of the table in the past two seasons, regardless of venue, I think that's the direction you have to go.
On its own, the moneyline is probably too expensive. So I'd rather tie Arsenal to the total landing under 4.5 goals at -115 odds and an implied 53.5% probability.
The trends here say Arsenal win-to-nil might be the play. All four of Fulham's home defeats have come without scoring. Four of Arsenal's five away wins have come via clean sheet.
But the reintroduction of Jimenez at a time when he's in his best form in three seasons changes the calculus, as does the underlying numbers from those eight games in question. Fulham created 3.9 xG over their four shutout home defeats. Arsenal conceded 3.0xG in those four clean-sheet wins.
Opting for the same-game parlay of a total under 4.5 goals makes the bet less lucrative but introduces far more room for variance in a competitive Arsenal win. It's still far from a sure thing, though, and something I wouldn't play much above -125 odds.
Pick: Arsenal and under 4.5, same-game parlay (-115 via DraftKings)
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