Premiere League Odds, Preview & Pick: Expect Plenty of Offense in Fulham vs. Everton (October 29)

Fulham vs. Everton Odds

Fulham looks for a third-consecutive victory when they host an Everton side in search of its second in a row in Saturday's NBC telecast.

Fulham have played some of the EPL's more entertaining football under former Everton manager Marco Silva, making life harder for his coaching colleagues in the process. A 3-0 home demolition of Aston Villa was the final blow for now-former Villa boss Steven Gerrard, and a 3-2 win away to Leeds United has American gaffer Jesse Marsch under pressure.

Everton manager Frank Lampard might have felt his own seat warm after three consecutive defeats against upper-tier competition. But the Toffees should be breathing easier after a thoroughly deserved 3-0 home win over Crystal Palace last weekend.

This is Silva's first match against Everton since he was fired in December of 2019. Between the clubs, the away sides won both the last two meetings.

Fulham Impressive After Promotion

Much like fellow London club Brentford did in their return to the top flight last seaons, Fulham have surprised critics by not only holding their own since promotion but doing so with attacking style.

It hasn't always worked. They've conceded multiple goals in 10 of 13 games in all competitions, most notably in an embarrassing 2-0 League Cup defeat to Crawley Town. But the Cottagers have also taken points from five of those, winning three.

Serbian striker Aleksandr Mitrovic is a major reason why. After hitting the net an astounding 43 times in last year's League Championship campaign, he has nine goals already in his return to the Premier League. That's two shy of his career best at this level.

Despite that production, he's only a minor contributor to Fulham exceeding their 15.3 xG by nearly seven full goals, with 7.2 xG to his name. Fulham's 21 goals conceded are more in line with xG expectations.

On-loan winger Dan James is available again after he had to miss last weekend's game against his parent club.

Panic Overblown For Everton?

Pressure may have been building after a recent slide, but a look at the strength of schedule suggests perhaps those nerves were overblown.

The Toffees suffered consecutive defeats home to Manchester United (sixth), away to Tottenham Hotspur (third) and away to Newcastle United (fourth), by a combined total of four goals. Overall, four of Everton's five defeats so far have come to teams occupying the top-six places in the table entering the weekend.

And against more beatable opposition, Everton were dominant in a 3-0 home win against Crystal Palace. Dominic Calvert-Lewin opened the scoring in his second start of the season with his first goal after recovering from a knee injury that kept him out the first two months.

Anthony Gordon added his team-leading third of the season after halftime and Dwight McNeil scored his first in the league since his move from relegated Burnley late on.

While Fulham have outperformed xG in attack, Everton have done so in defense, conceding only 12 times against 18.7 xG allowed. The Palace win was only the third match all season in which the Toffees have created more in xG value than their opponents.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Fulham's higher-scoring matches have been at home, as have Everton's away games to a lesser degree.

There have been three or more goals in all six league matches played at Craven Cottage and at least two in five of Everton's six in the league away from Goodison Park.

And although Fulham have exceeded their xG toals on attack, those same numbers suggest we should be expecting to lean toward the higher side here. Accounting for Fulham's home and Everton's away fixtures, matches are averaging nearly 3.0 total xG created.

I like playing three or more goals scored here at -118 odds and an implied 54.1% probability. There's probably also value on yes on both teams to score (-157 odds) and playing an Asian handicap over 2.0 goals (-250). As unsexy as the latter sounds, that wager has a record of 8-1-3 so far (w-l-d) between Fulham home and Everton away games.

The Pick: Total over 2.5 goals (-118)