AC Milan vs Inter Milan Odds, Pick | Champions League Semifinals

Inter Milan Stepping Up When it Matters Most

It's been a largely up and down season for Inzaghi's side, but they're playing their best football of the season as it nears the end. Early in the season, poor shot stopping from Samir Handanovic led to conceding way too many goals and dropping points.  The Champions League was a great success, headlined by the four points gained in two matches against Barcelona that secured their place in the knockout stage. Inter then had a brutal stretch in Serie A, where their top strikers couldn't convert a chance and they fell out of the top four.

Inter have now won seven straight matches in all competitions and have a chance to reach the final for the first time since 2010. Inzaghi's side also qualified for the Coppa Italia final to face Fiorentina on May 24 and is a clear favorite to finish in the top four in Italy. The core talent of the group may be aging — Inter are the oldest team in Serie A this season — but the talent is still producing at elite levels when needed. The first leg was a classic example as the goals came from 34-year old Henrikh Mkhitaryan and 37-year old Edin Dezko.

They have beaten Milan deservedly in each of the last three meetings in all competitions and finished the first leg with 2 xG. The two early goals completely changed the game state and enabled Inter to sit off and not possess the ball or press much, but it also gave us some insight to what the second leg could look like.

The Nerazzurri only had three sequences of 10+ passes in the first leg, which is significantly more direct than Inter usually play under Inzaghi. Milan also had a ton of success pressing and disrupting the build-up of Inter – Milan's 6.7 PPDA was by far the lowest of any of the head-to-head meetings between the two this year.

Whenever Inter wree able to break through, though, it was easy access to the most dangerous areas of the Milan penalty area. Milan's increased pressing increased the number of high danger events of the match. Either Milan recovered possession high or were immediately vulnerable once played through.

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AC Milan Reliant on Returning Forward

Leão isn't just Milan's best ball carrier and dribbler, he's one of the best in all of Europe. Only four players in the Champions League this season have carried the ball into the opposition penalty area more than Leão: Vinicius Junior, Jack Grealish, Kylian Mbappé and Khvicha Kvaratshkelia. In Italy, only Kvaratshkelia has better ball progression numbers than Leão. It's especially notable because of the drop off between him and Brahim Diaz, who was his replacement in the first leg.

Diaz played 83 minutes in the first leg and he had zero passes into the penalty area and zero carries. He totaled one progressive carry and one progressive pass in the entire match. Milan's best progressive engine came from left back — Theo Hernandez. Hernandez's ability to overlap with Leao will dramatically improve Milan's attacking output in the second leg.

Leão may be back for Milan, but the loss of Ismael Bennacer hurts the transition defense and the ball winning in midfield considerably. Of all players with at least five 90s in the Champions League this season, Bennacer ranks fourth in tackles + interceptions per 90. Milan's defense takes a major hit with his absence for the remainder of the season.

It was a flat spot and tricky away day, but Milan did concede 1.8 xG away at Spezia in the league on Saturday. Pioli can try to replicate the press and disruptive build-up tactics from the second half of leg one, but he'll be defensively vulnerable.

Inter Milan vs AC Milan Pick

Inter held a 2-0 lead after the first leg of their quarterfinal against Benfica, and Benfica manager Roger Schmidt was forced to dial up a very aggressive press to try and get his team back into the tie. The result was a ton of high turnovers forced for Benfica and a decent number of chances created. But Benfica were exposed in transition defense and Inter managed three goals of their own.

The xG showed that 3-3 was a bit generous to the attacks in this match, but this match is once again totaled too low. The first leg landed on two despite more than 3 xG created by some models. Milan may have gone 270+ minutes without a goal against Inter, but the return of Leão to partner with Hernandez should trouble Inter defensively.

I'd split my bet on both teams to score and also bet over 2.5 goals at plus money. My projections put this total at 2.61 goals with Leão in the lineup.

Picks: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-110) | Over 2.5 (+115)