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La Liga Picks & Betting Odds: Sevilla vs. Valladolid Predictions for Friday

La Liga Picks & Betting Odds: Sevilla vs. Valladolid Predictions for Friday article feature image

Jose Breton/Pics Action/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Pictured: Lucas Ocampo

  • Michael Leboff previews Friday's La Liga match between Sevilla and Valladolid, featuring betting odds and predictions.
  • Leboff breaks down the analysis behind his pick of Sevilla -1.5.

Sevilla vs. Valladolid Odds, Picks

Valladolid odds +750 [BET NOW]
Sevilla odds -250 [BET NOW]
Draw odds +360 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (+106/-132)
Time Friday at 4 p.m. ET
TV beIN Sports

Odds as of Thursday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Sevilla’s hold on the fourth and final Champions League spot could get a lot tighter with a victory as huge favorites over Valladolid. Los Nervionenses lead Getafe, Villareal and Real Sociedad by four, five and six points respectively in the race for fourth place and, of those teams, only Villareal seems to be in form.

Like their rivals, Sevilla have been inconsistent since La Liga resumed play. Los Nervionenses followed up a 2-0 win over Real Betis in the Seville Derby with three straight draws, though one of them was an impressive nil-nil result against Barcelona.

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Despite their pedestrian results, Sevilla’s hallmark defense has looked impressive in their first four matches back in action. Julen Lopetegui’s side has only allowed three goals in their last four matches and only one of those opponents (Villareal) was able to create more than 1.0 expected goals against Los Nervionenses.

The fact that Sevilla were able to hold Barcelona to just 0.82 xG in their meeting tells you how impressive they can be when they’re operating at their best.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Sevilla aren’t a one-trick pony. Their defense may define them, but Sevilla’s offensive output ranks among the best in Spain in 2019-20. Los Nervionenses rank fifth in La Liga with 46.49 expected goals and their 5.28 xGF since play resumed also is the fifth-best mark in the circuit.

Sevilla Valladolid
Goals for per game 1.33 0.84
Expected goals for per game 1.42 1.02
Goals against per game 1.03 1.16
Expected goals against per game 1.09 1.67
Total goals per game 2.45 2
Total expected goals per game 2.72 2.69

As the numbers show, both of these teams are comfortable playing in low-event matches but for Valladolid that style is a necessity as Pucela create the fewest scoring chances per match in La Liga.

A 90-minute game of soccer is a small enough sample size that anything can happen and Valladolid could pull this upset, but I think this matchup suits Sevilla too well to look anywhere else on Friday afternoon.

Valladolid’s defense has been steady enough to (barring a disastrous finish to the season) keep Pucela safe from relegation, but their expected goals numbers are much worse than their actual goals allowed. Valladolid have allowed the eighth-fewest goals in La Liga this season but they’ve conceded the fifth-most expected goals. Regression is coming for Pucela’s defense.

It should be noted that Valladolid have been in decent form since coming back from the break with a win, two draws and an impressive 1-0 loss to Atletico Madrid. Those results look legitimate, too, as Valladolid has only surrendered 3.63 xG across their last four matches.

That being said, I’m happy to bet against Valladolid in this spot. Sevilla’s defense has recorded the fourth-most clean sheets in La Liga this campaign and they showed how tough they are to break down against Barcelona two matches ago.

I was tempted to back Sevilla to win to nil (-103), but I have faith that Los Nervionenses will create enough opportunities against Valladolid’s overrated defense to win this match by at least two goals.

Picks: Sevilla -1.5 (+125)

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