Leeds United vs. Arsenal Betting Preview: Peacocks Have Value Against Red-Hot Gunners

Leeds United vs. Arsenal Odds

Arsenal sit atop the Premier League table after consecutive wins against Tottenham and Liverpool on home ground and now faces a tricky road test against a struggling Leeds United on Sunday.

The Gunners have maintained their quality form from the second half of last season and new additions like Gabriel Jesus have only improved their underlying numbers further.

Betting markets have loved Arsenal since the opening match of the season and Arsenal bettors have been rewarded in recent weeks at plus-money moneyline prices against fellow top six opponents.

The Gunners 'underlying numbers haven't held been quite as dominant away from The Emirates Stadium though and Leeds has made steady improvement since Jesse Marsch took over in the spring and helped them avoid relegation on the final day of the season.

Even though the Gunners come into this game in top form and Leeds haven't won any of their last five league matches, this is a prime buy-low, sell-high opportunity on the Peacocks at Elland Road.

Leeds United A Bang Average Side

Leeds are an average team in the Premier League based on almost any metric you look at. Through eight league matches, the Peacocks are dead even in expected goal difference and rank even better if you filter out penalties from the number.

The Peacocks are sixth in non-penalty xG difference per 90 and 11th in xG allowed per 90. They haven’t won any of their past five matches despite perfectly solid underlying numbers, and that makes this a good buy low on them at home.

Leeds have only played one top six side in the league to this point so you could argue that their strength of schedule has been a bit weak. That argument goes both ways though because they played down a man for the entire second half against Aston Villa and conceded 1.5 xGA in that match.

Leeds also disrupted Chelsea's possession plan successfully in that match and caused problems for the Blues by forcing high turnovers and turning them into clear scoring chances and goals.

Arsenal Facing Interesting Test

The Gunners had a tricky away trip to Bodo/Glimt in Norway on Thursday and it's a quick turnaround to play on the road again on Sunday.

Arsenal played that game without Jesus in the squad due to a minor injury and his status for this match is questionable. If he's not at full effectiveness, there is a drop off between him and backup Eddie Nketiah. Nketiah has shown improvements in the last eight months, but he doesn't have the dribbling and passing ability of Jesus to link the midfield, wingers and attack.

Arsenal are due to regress as well as I don't think it's reasonable to expect them to continue finishing 25% above their xG as a club, especially when the top shot-getter and striker is a below average finisher.

They have a +1.13 xG difference in the league this season and that's so much higher than the preseason prior that it's fair to expect a bit of regression from those lofty heights.

It's hard to otherwise poke holes in what has been an impressive start to the season for Mikel Arteta's side. They rank second in box entries created and allowed, they've improved their pressing numbers and are third in expected threat differential. That's while playing three top six sides already.

The sample is still small but Arsenal haven't been nearly as dominant away from home as they have been at home. The Gunners are +0.41 xG difference per 90 on the road, compared to +1.71 xGD per 90 at home.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

As much as this is a buy low on Leeds, it's also a sell high position on Arsenal after massive back-to-back home league wins against Tottenham and Liverpool.

The Gunners should be able to possess the ball effectively in this match, but Leeds’ first rank in pressing and third rank in ball recoveries show they’re more than comfortable playing without the ball in Marsch’s defensive pressing setup.

Expect the Gunners to control lots of possession, but we've seen some cracks in their transition defense that Manchester United exposed and Leeds could do the same with their vertical passing and quick strike transition style .

My projections make Leeds an underdog by 0.7 goals and I think the Gunners are a bit inflated as a full goal favorite on the road. We’ve reached the peak of the market on the Gunners with this line and even if you just look at raw xG difference per 90, the Peacocks have been a goal worse on a neutral pitch this season.

At home, I’ll take the goal and bet them at -120 or better.

The Pick: Leeds +1 (-108)