Leeds vs. Everton Betting Preview: Updated Premier League Odds, Picks & Prediction
Pat Scaasi/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Pictured: Leeds United standout Jack Harrison.
Leeds vs. Everton Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-125 / -110)|
|Day | Time||Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV|
|Odds updated as of Tuesday afternoon via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Leeds United looks to continue its perfect home form Tuesday when it welcomes an Everton side still seeking its first league win anywhere.
Led by the American trio of manager Jesse Marsch, plus midfielders Tyler Adams and Brenden Aaronson, the Peacocks have already defeated Wolverhampton and Chelsea at Elland Road. They took their first EPL loss last weekend in a 1-0 defeat at Brighton & Hove Albion.
On the other side, Everton only has three goals from its first four league fixtures and only recently signed striking reinforcement Neal Maupay. The Toffees earned a single point from their last two matches, most recently holding on for a 1-1 draw against Brentford.
This is Marsch’s first game managing against Everton, which drew former boss Marcelo Bielsa’s club in a 2-2 tie at Elland Road early last season and won the return fixture via a 3-0 shutout in one of manager Frank Lampard’s first matches in charge at Goodison Park.
Perhaps a letdown after that enthralling home win over Chelsea was only human. However, it was disappointing nonetheless for a side that again is focused first on avoiding relegation this campaign.
Even so, the underlying numbers were a bit better than the match highlights suggest, with Leeds creating 1.4 xG to Brighton’s 1.9 xG through 90 minutes. Nearly half of that came from a rough miss from Colombian substitute Luis Sinisterra, who played his longest shift of the season.
In the wider view, Leeds has been more opportunistic than wasteful, even while lead striker Patrick Bamford is again sidelined with an injury. The Peacocks are still outperforming their xG created by about a goal, as well as their xGDiff by nearly three goals.
By The Numbers
- +3 — The goal difference for Leeds through four Premier League games.
- +1.1 — The Peacocks’ xGDiff during the same span this season.
While the Toffees are still struggling up front to replace the departed Richarlison and injured Dominic Calvert-Lewin, a rebuilt back line appears to be paying off.
Everton’s 7.1 xG against are the second most allowed by a Premier League side. Yet ,the Toffees have conceded only conceded goals five times. Perhaps some of that is good fortune, but it also probably owes at least a little to the experience of summer signings James Tarkowski and Conor Coady.
Maupay is not a pure target man, plus he has never scored more than 10 goals at the Premier League level. However, if he can contribute here, he’s still an upgrade over Lampard’s other options in the central role.
By The Numbers
- 3.1 — Everton and its opponents’ combined xG per 90 minutes.
- 2.0 — Everton and its opponents’ combined goals per 90 minutes.
Betting Analysis & Pick
In my view, Everton’s attacking woes are dragging the line down too far on the total.
Yes, the Toffees’ lack of a striker hurts, but there’s enough quality on the flanks to find goals other ways. And there’s also a limit to how many chances Everton can allow without getting hit for two or more goals once in a while.
Take all of Everton and Leeds’ matches so far, and the combined xG for themselves and opponents is 2.9 per 90 minutes. And that increases to 3.2 when you remove games against Big Six side Chelsea. Small samples, sure. However, they all are this time of year.
These aren’t gifted attacking teams, but are proactive ones against opponents they see as equals. So, take the total clearing 2.5 goals at -125 odds and an implied 55.6% probability as my top pick.
The Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-125)