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Arsenal (7-1-0) travels to Anfield (4-1-3) to face Liverpool at 11:30 a.m. EST in a crucial Premier League clash.
Both teams sit near the top of the table. The Gunners want to maintain their lead, while Liverpool hopes to close the gap.
Arsenal is favored at a +135 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-120o / -105u) goals.
Let's get into my Arsenal vs. Liverpool prediction, and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Arsenal vs. Liverpool Prediction
Pick: Arsenal to Score in the Second Half – Yes (-145)
My Arsenal vs. Liverpool best bet is on the Gunners to score in the second half.
Arsenal vs. Liverpool Odds
Arsenal vs. Liverpool Picks, Parlay
Leg 1: Arsenal to Score in the Second Half – Yes (-145, DraftKings)
Leg 2: Under 2.5 Goals (-105, DraftKings)
Arsenal enters this game as the favorite despite a recent EFL Cup loss to Fleetwood. Mikel Arteta’s squad averages 1.13 second-half goals in the Premier League this season. They found the net after halftime in 12 of their 13 competitive games.
Liverpool has conceded five goals after the break in this campaign. Additionally, Manchester City scored three times in the second half against Liverpool, exposing a vulnerable defense late in the game.
Both teams will play carefully early on because of the title race implications. A slow first half sets up a situation where teams push for the lead later.
Arsenal also boasts an elite defense. They have allowed only five goals in eight league games, the best mark in the division. Their 6.19 expected goals allowed also ranks first.
When Arsenal plays away against top teams, Mikel Arteta prioritizes defensive structure over open attacks. Last season, Arsenal averaged 1.75 goals per 90 minutes in away games against Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United, and Chelsea.
Liverpool scores a modest 11 goals in eight league games. They record 1.51 expected goals per 90 minutes. This ranks eighth in the league. They will struggle to reach this average against the elite Arsenal defense.
This makes Under 2.5 Goals an attractive Arsenal vs Liverpool pick.
Arsenal vs. Liverpool Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Arsenal | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| 44.5% | 23.3% | 32.2% |
Projected Total Goals
| Arsenal | Total Goals | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| 1.66 | 3.05 | 1.39 |
Arsenal vs. Liverpool Betting Analysis
This matchup features two title contenders with different immediate goals. Arsenal sits tied for first place with 21 points alongside Manchester City, while Liverpool trails by six points in fourth place.
A Liverpool victory closes the gap and establishes their title credentials. An Arsenal win extends their lead over the hosts to nine points.
The home side arrives with momentum after a 2-0 victory over Brighton. They also won a penalty shootout against Chelsea in the EFL Cup. Head coach Andoni Iraola uses a 4-2-3-1 formation. Ryan Gravenberch and Alexis Mac Allister provide control in the midfield. Cody Gakpo and Bradley Barcola create danger in fast transitions. Alexander Isak leads the attack with six goals in seven games. He links well with Florian Wirtz to create chances.
Ronald Araujo stepped in at right-back because Jeremie Frimpong is out injured. This switch improved their defensive stability. They have allowed only eight goals in eight games. Liverpool will miss Conor Bradley, Hugo Ekitike, and Giovanni Leoni. Also, Dominik Szoboszlai remains a major doubt with a hamstring issue.
Arsenal relies on a strong midfield and solid defense. They average 60.8% possession. They allow a league-low 24 shots on target. Without Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz and Eberechi Eze must operate centrally to exploit Liverpool's high defensive line.
Arsenal suffered a shock EFL Cup loss to Fleetwood Town recently. They rotated their squad, but the defeat remains painful. They must overcome this failure as they visit a hostile Anfield environment.
William Saliba is officially out with a back injury. Max Dowman is suspended. Riccardo Calafiori, Noni Madueke, and Christos Tzolis remain questionable. Declan Rice is a fitness concern, though reports suggest he will recover in time. Mikel Arteta will likely use a pragmatic approach. He relies on mid-block discipline and set-piece routines.
Historically, Liverpool dominates this matchup at Anfield. They are unbeaten in 17 consecutive home games against Arsenal in normal time. The Gunners last won a league game at Anfield in September 2012.
Last season, Liverpool won 1-0 at home, and the teams played to a scoreless tie in London. In their last five head-to-head matchups, each team won once, and three games ended in a tie. They average 2.6 goals per game in these five contests.
These past results highlight a trend of tight contests. Both managers will prioritize mistake-free soccer over open attacks.
Check out the best soccer odds before you make your Arsenal vs Liverpool picks.
