Liverpool vs. Leeds United Preview & Prediction: Goals to Come on Merseyside

Liverpool vs. Leeds United Odds

Fresh off a dominant 3-0 victory against Ajax in the Champions League, Liverpool return home to face Leeds United.

The Reds have seen a turn in form recently, going 5-2-0 (W-L-D) in their last seven across all competitions. However, just last week, the Reds dropped all three points in a road fixture against Nottingham Forest. As for Leeds, they are winless in their last seven Premier League fixtures and have lost four in a row.

Last season, Liverpool dominated this head-to-head, winning both fixtures by a combined 9-0 margin, including 6-0 at home.

Liverpool Still Facing Regression

Mnaager Jurgen Klopp's side is unbeaten at home to start this season, but it has drastically overperformed its underlying metrics.

In six fixtures, Liverpool have a +12 goal differential against a +3.31 xGOT differential and a +6 big scoring chances differential. A good portion of that can be attributed to severe over-performance against Bournemouth in a 9-0 win, but even in four remaining home fixtures against teams not named Manchester City, Liverpool only have a +0.5 xGOT differential.

The good news? All of those four teams – West Ham, Brighton & Hove Albion, Newcastle United and Crystal Palace – are superior to Leeds United. So, although Liverpool could regress, it may have to wait a bit.

Plus, in those same four fixtures, Liverpool generated 1.8 xGOT per 90 minutes and three big scoring chances per 90 minutes, according to fotmob.com.

Leeds United Struggling to Find Away Answers

Yet again, Leeds finds themselves in a situation where they have struggled to earn points away from home.

Through five home fixtures this season, manager Jesse Marsch's side has earned only a single point and has dropped all three points in four straight road fixtures. The potentially alarming element? None of those five fixtures have come against big six sides.

Those results have largely been driven by poor defensive performances from Leeds. In those five fixtures, the Peacocks have conceded 1.86 xGOT per 90 minutes and have a -0.64 xGOT differential per 90 minutes.

In good news, Leeds have proven somewhat competent in terms of generating quality chances away from home. Albeit against weak competition, Marsch's side has created 1.22 xGOT per 90 minutes in those five road fixtures.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Here's the thing about Leeds – across the past two seasons, they have played horribly against the big six away from home.

In those 12 fixtures, Leeds allowed 2.94 xG per 90 minutes and conceded under two xG only once. The good news? In those same fixtures, Leeds have notched at least one tally in nine of those 12 fixtures.

Based on those trends, that leads me to get involved with the total. I don't see how Leeds can stop a Liverpool attack that, although it is playing on short rest, has dominated the Peacocks defense since Leeds earned promotion.

But, given how much negative regression Liverpool could see soon – 13 goals against 19.74 xGOT in their first 11 fixtures – expect Leeds to get on the board against a tired Liverpool defense.

For those reasons, I'll back over 3.5 goals as my top play for this match so long as it's available at -120 or better.

The Pick: Total Over 3.5 Goals (-115)