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Liverpool vs Newcastle EPL Betting Preview: Updated Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction

Liverpool vs Newcastle EPL Betting Preview: Updated Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction article feature image
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Michael Regan – The FA/The FA via Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool teammates Trent Alexander-Arnold, left, and Robert Firmino.

Liverpool vs. Newcastle Odds

Liverpool Odds -350
Newcastle Odds +850
Draw +475
Over/Under 3.5 (+115 / -160)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds updated as of Wednesday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

A mere four days after it handed Bournemouth a 9-0 drubbing, Liverpool returns to Anfield on Wednesday to battle Newcastle United in an intriguing Premier League showdown.

Meanwhile, manager Eddie Howe and the Magpies settled for a 1-1 draw against Wolverhampton after a late equalizer from Allan Saint-Maximin. The late tally kept Newcastle unbeaten for the season despite conceding the first goal for the second consecutive game.

Last season, Liverpool was dominant against Newcastle. In two meetings, the Reds were 2-0-0 (W-L-D) and had a +3 goal differential.

Liverpool

Although manager Jürgen Klopp’s side has started a bit slowly, Liverpool’s attack has run rampant.

In its first four fixtures, Liverpool has cleared at least 1.5  expected goals in all of them, culminating with a 3.4 xG output in its third match against Bournemouth, per fbref.com. Plus, the Liverpool attack ranks second in the league in big scoring chances (14) through its first four matches.

That said, the defense has struggled to establish consistency early on. The match against Bournemouth marked the first time Liverpool conceded less than one xG  and Liverpool’s first clean sheet since late last season.

Further, Klopp’s defense is tied for 14th in big scoring chances against entering its fixture against Newcastle.

By The Numbers

  • +8/+5 — Liverpool goal differential vs. Liverpool big scoring chances differential this season.
  • 16 — Number of times the Reds have generated 1.5-plus xG in their last 20 EPL fixtures.
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Newcastle United

If Newcastle is able to pull off the upset at Anfield, it will be a remarkably impressive feat.

Last season, the Magpies finished 0-6-0 (W-L-D) on the road against Big Six clubs, while conceding 2.25 xG per 90 minutes, per fbref.com. On the flip side, Newcastle’s attack generated only 0.48 xG per 90 minutes in those six fixtures, leading to a -1.77 xGDiff per 90 minutes.

Just in terms of its early fixtures this season, Newcastle arrives in Merseyside a negative regression candidate. Manager Eddie Howe’s side has a +2 goal differential through four fixtures, but a -4 differential on big scoring chances.

By The Numbers

  • 1.23 — Newcastle road xGA per 90 minutes in its last 12 road fixtures.
  • 5 — Number of times Newcastle lost by 2+ goals against Big Six last season.
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Betting Analysis & Pick

Call me square all you want, but I’m all over Liverpool in this fixture.

Despite their own injury concerns, the Reds thoroughly dominated the Magpies last season. Across the two meetings, Liverpool generated four goals on 5.36 xG and a whopping seven big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.

Additionally, Newcastle enters this fixture due for some HEAVY negative defensive regression. Through four matches, the Magpies have conceded only four goals on 12 big scoring chances. Against a Liverpool offense that has played remarkably consistent, I expect the defense to crumble.

Lastly, it’s worth noting Newcastle finished fifth-worst last season in successful pressure percentage against. With Liverpool’s front-line having fresh legs, expect Klopp’s side to dominate the ball and force errors from its foe’s back line without it.

The Pick: Liverpool -1.5 (-125) 

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