Liverpool vs Tottenham Odds, Expert Pick: Expect Early Fireworks (April 30)
Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool’s Virgil van Dijk.
- Liverpool takes on Tottenham in a Sunday morning EPL fixture.
- The Reds opened as relatively large favorites, and they've only been steamed up even more.
- Check out Anthony Dabbundo's full betting preview for Liverpool vs. Spurs below.
Liverpool vs Tottenham Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-225 / +175)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-175 / +125)|
|Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Tottenham’s challenging three-match stretch against Newcastle, Manchester United and Liverpool concludes on Sunday as Spurs visit Liverpool at Anfield.
Neither club has achieved its goals or ambitions to this point in the season, but there are still key Europa League places on the line on Sunday. The Reds won the reverse fixture in north London, 2-1, and are sizable moneyline favorites to complete the double.
Liverpool opened around -165 on the marketwide moneyline in this matchup, but the Reds have taken a ton of money on Friday into Saturday and are now even larger -200 moneyline favorites.
Liverpool is expected to have its fully fit back line back in action on Sunday as Ibrahima Konate returns from injury to join Virgil van Dijk as the top choice center back pairing.
Jurgen Klopp also has all of his main attacking options available except Roberto Firmino. The Reds are quietly unbeaten in five matches in the league — including draws against Chelsea and Arsenal and three straight wins entering this contest. They’ve won by outscoring opponents — Liverpool has scored 13 and conceded six in the last two matches.
The Reds have had some high-profile attacking struggles in terms of finishing in certain games, but this is still the second-best attack on paper and in underlying numbers when everyone is fit. The Reds are third in attacking xG per 90, shots per 90 and box entries.
The defense has been a disaster away from home because the press isn’t nearly as good as in past years, but this isn’t a good matchup for a Tottenham backline that has struggled against teams that press high up the pitch.
The Reds rank third in high turnovers forced in the Premier League, and Tottenham has had more giveaways in possession that have led to goals than any other team in the Premier League. Spurs will struggle to deal with the energy and pressing intensity in this matchup on Sunday.
There’s a clear pattern emerging in Tottenham’s away matches against top pressing sides. The five teams that rank highest in passes per defensive action and pass completion rate allowed are Leeds United, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United. The Red Devils just put up two xG in north London, while Spurs conceded two goals at Chelsea, six at Newcastle and three at Arsenal.
The main fix Antonio Conte drilled in Spurs was the ability to play through pressure and turn it into big scoring chances at the other end of the pitch.
As Spurs have regressed and they are onto their third manager of the season with Ryan Mason, they’ve slowly deteriorated into a team that gives away possession high up the pitch and is immediately vulnerable. That was evident in Spurs’ blown leads against Southampton and Bournemouth.
The Reds’ second goal at Spurs in the last meeting came from a defensive error from Eric Dier, and individual defensive errors have been the primary driver in their defensive issues.
Tottenham did show an impressive response in the second half against Manchester United when Spurs produced 1.5 xG and scored twice before nearly winning the match in the final minutes.
The attack isn’t nearly as good as it has been in years past with the drop off from Heung-min Son especially, but the Liverpool defense is flawed enough to concede more than 1 xG per match even when in good form.
Liverpool vs Tottenham Pick
I showed some value in Liverpool when the line opened at -160-165, but the Reds have been steamed to the point where there’s no longer projected value in backing them.
The books are also shading the first-half line toward Liverpool given Tottenham’s poor starts to games this season. Liverpool is as high as -115 on the first-half moneyline, which is once again a quite inflated line given the underlying numbers of both clubs.
You’re paying a real tax on Liverpool in this matchup because Spurs are in poor recent form and Liverpool is getting healthy. Instead of backing Liverpool’s matchup advantage, I’m going to look to continue to play against both defenses.
Liverpool’s early energy and pressing intensity should help it get on the board in the first half, while the defense remains vulnerable. I’m betting both teams to score in the first half at +220 or better.
Pick: Both Teams to Score in First Half (+220 or better)
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