Liverpool vs. West Ham United Prediction, Preview: Liverpool Slightly Overvalued at Anfield

Liverpool vs. West Ham United Prediction, Preview: Liverpool Slightly Overvalued at Anfield article feature image

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  • Liverpool looks to build on their win over Manchester City with a fixture against West Ham.
  • Will they be able to get the job done? Ian Quillen isn't too sure.
  • Read on for his best bet and prediction.

Liverpool vs. West Ham Odds

Liverpool Odds-235
West Ham Odds+600
Over/Under3.5 ( +127 / -165)
Day | TimeWednesday |  2:30 ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Liverpool look to build on their huge weekend win over Manchester City when they welcome another resurgent side in West Ham United to Anfield.

The Reds became the first league opponent to shut out Manchester City in their 1-0 triumph. The result lifted Liverpool — who began the seasons as second -favorites behind City to capture the league title — up to eighth place entering midweek.

West Ham were held to a 1-1 draw at Southampton over the weekend. But after their own sputtering start, the Irons have taken seven points from their last three games to claw their way up to 12th.

These teams split their league meetings last season, each winning by a goal at home.

Liverpool Showing Glimpses, But Consistency Remains the Question

Sunday's victory isn't the only time we've seen manager Jurgen Klopp's present squad show echoes of last season's dominant group.

The Reds also have a 9-0 home win over Bournemouth in league play from September, and a 7-1 away thumping of Glasgow Rangers in their bag from a week ago in UEFA Champions League Play.

But it's the consistency that has lacked, and an excellent result against City doesn't prove that problem is over.

Even so, Liverpool's unbeaten home form has been good, if not quite great, against a deceptively tough early slate in front of the Anfield faithful. Entering the weekend, the average place in the table of teams to make that visit this season is 7.6, with Crystal Palace lowest at 13th.

West Ham Find New Life

At times, the UEFA Europa League can be a burden for clubs that don't quite have the same depth as regular Champions League participants.

But West Ham appear to have used group play to ingratiate their half-dozen or so new players into their squad and find some momentum when the league was going poorly.

Only a month ago, there were concerns among some Hammers followers of a potential relegation battle following a 1-0 away loss to Everton. Instead, West Ham won four straight in all competitions prior to their draw on the South Coast, with two of those in the EPL and two in Europe.

Even more encouragingly, the Hammers are performing consistently in terms of chances created and allowed. They've tied or lead their opponent in xG in six consecutive matches. The results were going to eventually come.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Liverpool are imposing at home, but the odds given to them here still reflect last year's team more than this year's, and the season is now 25% gone.

And if you're going to bank on Liverpool regressing to something closer to last year, than you have to do the same for a West Ham side that qualified for Europe.

In other words, it's an opportunity to leverage the visitors. The best way is probably a two-way handicap wager on West Ham at +1.5 goals at -135 odds and an implied 57.4% probability. The Reds have only won one league match anywhere by multiple goals, and West Ham have yet to be beaten by two or more away.

Sometimes, comparing those kinds of samples is tricky when two clubs occupy distinctly different tiers of the league table. But with these teams only separated by four places in the table and 2.3 in xGDiff, they're informative.

If you're looking to go more aggressive, consider backing the draw on a three-way handicap with Liverpool at -1 goal (if your book offers it). The last three league fixtures between these teams at Anfield have been decided by one.

The Pick: West Ham +1.5 goals, two-way handicap (-135)

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