Liverpool vs Wolves Pick, Odds: Fade the Reds in Premier League
Craig Mercer/MB Media/Getty Images. Pictured: Jurgen Klopp.
Liverpool vs Wolves Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-134 / +110)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-122 / -104)|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Liverpool look to avenge their most embarrassing loss of the Premier League season when they welcome Wolves to Anfield on Wednesday.
The Reds were thoroughly beaten 3-0 by Wolves early last month at the Molineaux, marking their sixth EPL away defeat and third by multiple goals.
The response in the league has been good, as they’ve taken seven points from their following three games while keeping three clean sheets. But in between was a confidence-rattling 5-2 loss to Real Madrid in leg one of their Champions League series.
Wolves have taken seven points from their last four games — beginning with that win over the Reds — to move three points clear of the relegation line. They split six-pointers with Southampton and Bournemouth before dueling to a well-deserved 1-1 draw at Fulham on Saturday.
This game was originally postponed from match day 7, which is why these sides are meeting twice in less than four weeks.
Liverpool Failing to Build Momentum
For a brief moment, it seemed the Reds may have truly righted the ship.
First came a comprehensive 2-0 Merseyside Derby victory over Everton, then an early ambush that resulted in another 2-0 victory away to a Newcastle side chasing a Champions League place.
Yet, both results flattered to deceive.
An Everton side with no reliable goal-scorers played Liverpool even for the opening half-hour and struck the woodwork literally seconds before Mo Salah opened the scoring on the counter. From there, Everton’s lack of creative players meant they had no choice but to throw lots of bodies forward. And Liverpool gladly took the space to find a second goal and dominate the second half.
The Reds deserve plenty of credit for their early aggression against Newcastle, but they also should’ve put the match beyond reach far earlier after Toon went down to 10 men after 22 minutes gone, having already conceded twice. Instead, Newcastle were the better side after halftime, albeit without a goal to show for it.
Then came that miserable night at Anfield that started with a 2-0 lead before manager Jurgen Klopp’s side conceded five unanswered goals. And now it’s been 166 minutes since the Reds have scored following their 0-0 draw at Crystal Palace.
The good news is Darwin Nunez is expected to be fit following a shoulder injury picked up against Newcastle. He played against Madrid with the help of painkillers but was out on the weekend against Palace.
Wolves Need Additions to Bolster Results
Wolves’ biggest problem remains their end product, though perhaps that’s improving of late under mid-season managerial appointment Julen Lopetegui.
The Midlanders have scored 10 times in nine games since Lopategui took over, which — believe it or not — represents an increase of nearly 0.6 goals per game from their first 15 league fixtures. They scored a sixth of their 18 goals this entire season in their previous match against Liverpool, and a third of their total goals in their last four matches.
Perhaps that reflects one of the most successful winter transfer windows in all of the Premier League. So far, those acquisitions have made a combined 17 Premier League starts and scored three goals.
And for the most expensive — Brazilian midfielder Joao Gomes — the best is likely yet to come as he pursues full fitness (he was in preseason with Flamengo). He’s already off the mark, having scored the winner in a dramatic 2-1 victory against Southampton.
Liverpool vs Wolves Pick
Liverpool are within shouting distance of a top-four finish, nine points back of fourth-place Tottenham with two matches in hand.
The Champions League could still be realistic if winter signing Cody Gakpo can continue his decent start and Nunez can finally add more goals to otherwise impressive play in his first season for the Reds.
Yet, there’s probably more reason to believe Wolves will improve more in the second half relative to their previous performances.
Lopetegui’s greatest influence since he arrived may be the willingness of transfer targets to join the effort. It’s hard to quantify belief in a manager, but battling from down a goal and a man is one example of it. Taking the game to an in-form Fulham side for the first 60 minutes of a 1-1 draw is another.
So, I’m inclined to find a way to back the visitors here.
The best is on a handicap of Wolves +1.5, with -150 odds and an implied probability 60% probability. Wolves have only lost once in five away matches since Lopetegui’s takeover. Liverpool only have two multi-goal wins at home, both against teams currently in the relegation zone.
Want a better return? Another option I like is backing Wolves +0.5 and a total under 3.5 goals on a same-game parlay (+240 via BetMGM). If the visitors are going to get a point or more, it’s not going to be in a track meet. They have yet to see the total land above three goals in an away match this season.
Pick: Wolves +1.5 (-150 via BetRivers)
How would you rate this article?
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.