Man City vs Chelsea Odds, Predictions, Picks | Premier League Match Preview
(Photo by Alex Livesey – Danehouse/Getty Images) Pictured: Kevin De Bruyne
Man City vs Chelsea Odds
| Man City Odds | -275 |
| Chelsea Odds | +650 |
| Draw | +450 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 +110/-138 |
Manchester City will try to keep the pressure on Liverpool and Arsenal when they host a Chelsea side whose attack is spearheaded by former City midfielder Cole Palmer.
City have won nine in a row in all competitions — including six in the league — and began the weekend in second in the Premier League table.
Chelsea have won back-to-back games between an FA Cup fourth-round replay victory at Aston Villa and their 3-1 league win at Crystal Palace. But the Blues haven't gone more than three matches unbeaten in the league or four without defeat in all competitions.
When these teams previously met, the result was one of the best games of the season, a 4-4 draw in which both teams held leads.
Will this game be another thriller? Let's get to my Man City vs. Chelsea prediction and pick.
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Man City
City may have proven they can earn results without Belgian midfielder Kevin De Bruyne pulling the strings, but his return to fitness following roughly a five-month absence has certainly made things easier.
De Bruyne has tallied two goals and seven assists in seven appearances since his return.
Two of those performances have been man-of-the-match worthy: His 22-minute cameo at Newcastle United in mid-January, where he leveled the game shortly after his entrance, then provided the inch-perfect ball over the top on Oscar Bobb's winner. and his goal and two assists in Tuesday's 3-1 win over FC Copenhagen in Leg 1 of their UEFA Champions League Round of 16 tie.
Erling Haaland's form has seen a few more fits and starts since his return, but the 23-year-old scored both goals in a 2-0 win over Everton last weekend, bringing his league-leading total to 16. And he's gotten in good positions in the four games since his return, generating 2.3 expected goals (xG) in 285 minutes.
If there's reason to be skeptical of the impact that duo has had, it's the schedule. Ninth-place Chelsea will be the highest-ranked team in the table City have played since this win streak began.
Chelsea
At their best, the Blues have proven capable of going toe to toe with the league's best in their first season under Mauricio Pochettino. That's especially true at home, where Chelsea have held the top three — Arsenal, Liverpool and City — to draws.
At their worst, Pochettino's youthful group can be beaten by sides that theoretically have a lot less quality across their roster.
Yet despite all the volatility, the Blues have become very consistent in terms of their reliance on Cole Palmer to score and create meaningful goals.
Half of Palmer's 10 league goals have been penalties, but he also has six assists. And since the 21-year-old transferred from City at the end of the primary transfer window, Chelsea are 6-2-2 when he's been involved in a goal. They've won all four matches in which Palmer has both a goal and an assist.
So why isn't Chelsea better? Perhaps there are nerves for Pochettino's young team when playing in front of home supporters. Chelsea have scored 21 goals away against 20 at Stamford Bridge. And they've performed more or less in line with their xG difference away from home, but are lagging their home xGDiff by nearly eight goals.
Man City vs Chelsea
Prediction
Chelsea's 20.4 away xG is actually the second-highest total in the Premier League (behind City's), and their 21 away goals scored is sixth best. City have only kept three clean sheets at home, and the list of those teams who failed to score — Tottenham, Nottingham Forest and Sheffield United — is mostly unimpressive.
The Blues' away numbers make this a pretty strong spot to parlay a yes wager on both teams to score and the total going above 2.5 goals at -105 odds and an implied 51.2% probability. It's a wager that has cashed on 15 of 23 occasions between City's home matches and Chelsea's away games, and you could probably feel comfortable playing it as low as -130 or so.
Pick: Yes – Both Teams to Score and Total Over 2.5 Goals, Same-Game Parlay
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