Man City vs Sheffield United Odds, Prediction | Premier League Picks
(Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images) Pictured: Rodri of Manchester City.
Man City vs Sheffield United Odds
| Man City Odds | -1200 |
| Sheffield United Odds | +2000 |
| Draw | +1200 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -333 / +250 |
Manchester City returns home for the first time since winning the FIFA Club World Cup, welcoming last-place Sheffield United on Saturday.
Man City built on its title-winning ways in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, overcoming an early deficit to earn a 3-1 victory at Everton that took it up to fourth in the table, five points off leaders Liverpool with a match in hand.
The day before, Sheffield United's struggles in their first season since earning promotion continued when they were dealt a 3-2 home defeat by Luton Town in a wild affair that kept the Blades seven points from safety.
Man City survived a tricky trip to Bramall Lane earlier this season, earning a 2-1 victory on Rodri's 88th-minute winner just three minutes after the Blades leveled through Jayden Bogle.
Let's preview both sides before diving into a Man City vs. Sheffield United pick.
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Man City
Man City earned its victory over Everton in its return to the league campaign, but also required some good fortune to obtain it.
First came Julián Álvarez's go-ahead penalty, earned when Nathan Aké's shot that was otherwise heading well over the target struck Amadou Onana's extended arm. Then came some insurance through Bernardo Silva's long-range chip after Toffees goalkeeper Jordan Pickford's wayward pass.
Even so, it was a solid result considering Everton would be a top-half side if not for its points deduction, and that City was without goal merchant Erling Haaland and lost center back John Stones to an in-game injury. Neither one is expected to be back Saturday, but center back Rúben Dias should return after illness kept him out Wednesday.
While City will feel they have plenty of time to make up the gap on Liverpool and others above them, Wednesday did mark the continuation of one concerning trend — a failure to keep clean sheets. Pep Guardiola's side has preserved only four in the league and two in the league at home.
But there will be plenty of occasions when you might consider City more likely to do so before its home fans in the second half of the campaign. In addition to the Blades, fellow newly promoted sides Luton and Burnley also have yet to visit.
Sheffield United
In trying to handicap Sheffield United, the first job is to determine what has changed since Chris Wilder returned as manager to replace Paul Heckingbottom in early December.
According to the evidence so far, Wilder's version of the Blades has eschewed possession to an even greater degree than Heckingbottom's. In his five league matches in charge, Sheffield United has had 25% of the ball or less on three occasions. It kept more of the ball only once, posting a 51% figure in its 3-2 loss to Luton, a game in which its trailed for 53 minutes plus both halves of stoppage time.
Perhaps it's an approach that will lead to better results in the long term — and Wilder has already earned four of the Blades' nine points in a win over Brentford and draw at Aston Villa. And it's almost a certainty that they will lean heavily in that direction against City, especially given that Gustavo Hamer — the visitors' most creative player — will be serving a one-match card accumulation ban.
A look at the analytics suggests the Blades were excessively unfortunate against Luton. But while they led the xG count 2.4 to 0.6, some 1.4 of their xG value came on one 69th-minute sequence when three successive shots were blocked before Anel Ahmedhodžić's go-ahead strike.
Luton's two own-goals also were not assigned any xG value on plays that might have led to shots without defensive intervention.
Man City vs Sheffield United
Prediction
Wilder's tactics — combined with a roster that doesn't have many threats on the counter — are a bad matchup for a Guardiola squad that is exceedingly comfortable on the ball. This is a game City can and should win comfortably, their penchant for conceding unnecessary goals notwithstanding.
But how do you find value on that when nearly everyone is expecting it? You look at how City's victories at home have generally played out: early goals followed by sometimes letting a team back in the match.
In fact, City have led in every first half in the league they've played at the Etihad Stadium, while its second-half record at home is far more pedestrian.
So the wager here is on the first-half spread on City -1 goals at -143 odds and an implied 58.8% probability. It's cashed or pushed in every City home game this season, and Sheffield United objectively is the worst league opponent to visit yet.
As a more aggressive alternative, you could play City -1 goals on a three-way, first-half spread (+150 via FanDuel), or a same-game parlay on City to win the first half and the first-half total to land above 1.5 goals (+121 via ESPNBet).
Pick: Manchester City -1 First Half (-143 via Bet365)
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