Man United vs Aston Villa Odds, Pick: Bet This Premier League Total (April 30)

Man United vs Aston Villa Odds, Pick: Bet This Premier League Total (April 30) article feature image

Chloe Knott – Danehouse/Getty Images. Pictured: Marcus Rashford.

Man United vs Aston Villa Odds

Sun, Apr. 30
9 a.m. ET
USA Network

Man United Odds


Aston Villa Odds

Over/Under2.5 (-138 / +110)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(-163 / +120)
Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Three days after Manchester United failed to secure a 2-0 halftime lead in north London against Tottenham and settled for a 2-2 draw, the Red Devils return home to Manchester to host surging Aston Villa.

United's top-four odds are up to 86%, based on FiveThirtyEight's SPI ratings. It would take a sizable collapse from Erik Ten Hag's side to not return to the Champions League in his first season.

Aston Villa has real aspirations for the Europa League now, though. Dropped points by Spurs and Brighton during the previous midweek fixtures opens the door for Villa to claim one of the fifth to seventh places and further cement the excellent progress they've made under manager Unai Emery.

Emery entered the club midseason from Villarreal and while the defense had its struggles early, they've really rounded into solid form in the last month under him. The attack is running really well to score as much as it has, but the Villans are more than capable of slowing down a sometimes one-dimensional Manchester United attack.

Manchester United

Manchester United and Aston Villa aren't all that different from a statistical profile perspective.

For a team that's safely in the top four, the Red Devils aren't really a top-four team based on underlying numbers. Their attack is sixth in non-penalty expected goals (xG) per 90 created and the Red Devils are just eighth in expected threat going forward. The Red Devils remain elite in transition attacks — as shown by the second goal against Spurs on Thursday — but they're much less impressive at sustaining pressure in the attacking third against mid-table teams.

United also don't have a primary central shot getter, thus they rank 14th in average shot distance and just sixth in shots per 90. They've finished solidly above their xG — mostly thanks to a hot run from Marcus Rashford in front of goal.

United does rank above average in high turnovers forced and they're sixth lowest in pass completion rate allowed, so it's reasonable to expect that the press should be able to force some mistakes when Villa insists on building out from the back. That's the main statistical advantage for the Red Devils here, and it needs to make up for the lacking defensive quality right now thanks to injury to Raphael Varane and Lisandro Martinez. Fortunately for United, Aston Villa's not really going to press from the front and turn over the United back line.

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Aston Villa

Aston Villa’s defense has quietly trended in the right direction under Unai Emery in the last month. The Villans still have their defensive issues in transition and struggle with high turnovers at times, but the rest of the profile has improved under Emery. Villa has conceded just 3.8 xGA in the last five matches in the Premier League, and that includes a matchup with Newcastle that looked like a bad matchup on paper for them. 

The Villans attack is still overvalued in my view, and the matchup with Fulham on Tuesday did nothing to change my opinion of that. Despite having most of the possession, Aston Villa was not able to keep that possession in dangerous areas or sustain any real consistent threat on the Fulham goal. Villa finished the match with roughly one expected goal and ultimately scored on a set piece, but it was the defense that powered them to the 1-0 victory.

Villa ranks in the bottom half of the league in high turnovers forced and bottom half in pass completion rate allowed. Even since Emery took over, the Villans are in the bottom half in passes per defensive action, which will come as a reprieve for United's backline in build-up possession.

Man United vs Aston Villa

Manchester United presents more problems in attack than Fulham did, but this total is still too high sitting at three. The first meeting between the two sides finished with just 1.1 total expected goals, and Villa’s more passive defensive approach prevented United from getting any real transition opportunities. Villa held just 42 percent of the ball in that matchup — granted they led for almost the entire contest. 

United’s defensive injuries have certainly led to them conceding more chances in general, but I’d still bet the under 3 at -130 or better. Both attacks have run really well from a finishing perspective in the last two months. 

Pick: Under 3  (-130 or Better)

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